Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Los Angeles Rams in Sunday's Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.
Barkley is a cinch to win the NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award after becoming just the ninth player in NFL history to rush for more than 2,000 yards in a season.
After such an incredible campaign, it's no surprise that Saquon Barkley's odds are heavily inflated.
That said, my NFL picks are betting on Barkley to keep surpassing his lofty expectations. Here are my best free Saquon Barkley odds for January 19.
Saquon Barkley player prop picks
- Best bet
Barkley Over 111.5 rushing yards
(-117 at Caesars) - SGP pick
Barkley Over 111.5 rushing yards
Barkley Under 11.5 receiving yards
Hurts anytime touchdown
(470 at Caesars)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Saquon Barkley prop pick
My best bet
Barkley Over 111.5 rushing yards (-117 at Caesars)
My analysis
The O/U for Saquon Barkley's rushing yards is sitting at a staggering 111.5 for this contest. That said, the Philadelphia Eagles superstar running back has eclipsed this number in six of his last eight games. And one of the contests where he went below this number, he still had 107 rushing yards against the Baltimore Ravens top-rated run defense.
Barkley's best performance came against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12 when he galloped for 255 yards on 26 carries. Given that incredible performance and the snow we're expected to get in Philadelphia on Sunday, the Rams will likely focus on limiting Philadelphia's ground game.
However, teams have been trying to do that all year, with Barkley facing a light box on just 18.6% of his runs. There's only so much they can do to load up against the run when the Eagles have the best offensive line in the NFL and downfield threats like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to keep defenses honest.
This young Rams stop unit tends to over-pursue and miss tackles in the second level, issues that could be exacerbated in wintry conditions. The Rams were 26th in the league in yards allowed per carry (4.6) and ranked 28th in average yards allowed before contact to running backs.
That's a terrible recipe for containing Barkley, who averaged 5.8 yards per rush attempt and easily led the NFL with a whopping 2.64 yards per carry before contact.
Saquon Barkley same-game parlay
Saquon Barkley Over 111.5 rushing yards
Saquon Barkley Under 11.5 receiving yards
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown
Barkley had 47 receiving yards when these teams clashed in Week 12, but his role in the passing game disappeared down the stretch. He hasn't had more than 10 receiving yards in six straight games and didn't log a single reception in two of those contests.
The Eagles rarely throw to their running backs, and backup Kenneth Gainwell is on the field for about 20% of their offensive snaps, primarily on passing downs. So even if a Philly RB does get targeted in the passing game, there's a chance it won't be Barkley.
Barkley is the primary reason Philadelphia has been putting up points, but it's often Jalen Hurts finishing drives at the goal line. The Eagles QB has punched it into the endzone in eight of his last 11 games. While Hurts tendency to vulture Barkley's touchdowns might have been frustrating for Fantasy Football owners, it helps us in this SGP
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