Seahawks vs Giants MNF Prop Bets: Breida Becomes Best Back

Prop bet #1: Keeping down with Daniel Jones

If not for a miraculous second half against the Arizona Cardinals, Daniel Jones would have to be considered one of the worst quarterbacks in football right now.

The $160 million man has led one of the worst passing attacks in football, putting up an abysmal 4.35 adjusted yards per attempt with two touchdowns and four interceptions. While the Seahawks have been one of the very worst in the league at defending the pass, I don’t really see any reason to believe Jones will make any sort of improvements based on what we’ve seen.

Jones may have faced some difficult defenses, but he’s still produced a -1.4 completion percentage over expectation. He ranks in the Bottom 10 of all quarterbacks in that statistic and success rate, and he is 26th among 34 quarterbacks this year in EPA per play.

The Giants have been in love with the pass this year, ranking 10th in pass play rate, but that’s been largely due to the fact that they’ve been trailing for the majority of the season. Despite Seattle being weak against the pass, the Giants should still look to run the ball a good deal in what’s looking like it will be the closest game they’ve had thus far in the year. While they did squeak out a win against the Cardinals, they had to play from behind for the duration.

Oddsmakers have baked the Seahawks’ ineptitude against the pass into this line, as well as the Giants’ high pass-play rate. Jones has averaged 187 yards per game this year and you can get a great deal on his Under here.

Daniel Jones prop: Under 231.5 yards passing (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Always the Breida's maid

While the Seahawks’ Bottom-5 secondary will steal most of the headlines, I think that overwhelming narrative opens up some value in fading New York’s passing attack as well as backing its ground game.

Without Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida is going to take over as the primary man in the backfield. The Giants’ line hasn’t been fantastic, but it still ranks 20th in run block win rate, and with this game expected to be close with just a two-point spread, the Giants will feature a heavy dose of the run, particularly considering they should have no faith in Jones given what he’s done so far this year.

Breida has averaged 4.4 yards per carry this year and has averaged 4.8 for his career, a mark that should give you confidence in backing him here. While the Seahawks have done an excellent job of defending the run this year, ranking seventh in DVOA, they have also faced three teams that are pass-happy in the Rams, Lions, and Panthers.

I’d anticipate a lot of Breida for the Giants and if he gets even 14 totes, he should smash this Over.

Matt Breida prop: Over 45.5 rushing yards (-125 at PointsBet)

Prop bet #3: Pop some Charbonnet

If you’ve watched any of the Seahawks this year, it will come as no surprise that I’m going to be investing heavily in Zach Charbonnet. The rookie out of UCLA has run like his life depends on it to this point in the season, averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

I’ve been incredibly impressed with his running ability and it seems the Seahawks have been too, considering he was bumped up from 24% of the snaps in Week 1 to 26% in Week 2 and 43% last week. Seattle is trending towards a timeshare between Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III, and I think we should follow this trend and make some money.

Seattle ranks 11th in run block win rate this year and will be up against a Giants team ranked 27th in overall defensive DVOA and 25th against the run. It should be able to impose its will on offense all game long, and that should mean a heavy dose of the run for a team that’s sat in the middle of the pack when it comes to rush versus pass play frequency.

Once again, most attention will be paid to two struggling secondaries which opens up some value in the rushing prop markets. Charbonnet is my personal favorite way to take advantage considering he’s looking more and more like the guy who will end the season as Seattle’s primary back.

Zach Charbonnet prop: Over 23.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)