The Detroit Lions welcome the Seattle Seahawks to Ford Field in Week 4 of NFL action on Sunday afternoon.
The Lions have been surprisingly competitive this season and will try to go a perfect 4-0 against the spread. However, even against the lowly Seahawks, it won't be easy for a banged-up Detroit team to cover as a 3.5-point favorite.
Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Seahawks vs. Lions on October 2.
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Seahawks vs Lions best odds
Seahawks vs Lions picks and predictions
Detroit's two best weapons in D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown are unlikely to play on Sunday, with several other key offensive players questionable with injuries. That makes it tough to have faith in the Lions' offense, even against an atrocious Seahawks defense.
However, it is easier to trust a few players on Seattle against a Detroit stop-unit that hasn't been much better than Seattle's. The Lions are 25th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (265.7) and rank 24th in dropback EPA and success rate on defense.
That makes them vulnerable against a Seattle passing attack that saw Geno Smith have his best game of the year last week with 325 yards through the air. Smith's favorite target was Tyler Lockett, who had nine receptions on 11 targets for the second week in a row. Lockett was limited to three catches against the Broncos in Seattle's season opener but faces a much easier matchup on Sunday.
Lions' cornerback Jeff Okudah has improved this season but might be matched up against the bigger DK Metcalf, and Detroit's other young starting corner Amani Oruwariye has regressed with a woeful 29.5 coverage grade according to Pro Football Focus. The Lions also starting safety Tracy Walker to a season-ending injury in Week 3.
Expect Smith to lock on to Lockett early and often in this one, and take the Over 5.5 on Lockett's receptions total.
My best bet: Lockett Over 5.5 receptions (+110 at BetMGM)
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Seahawks vs Lions spread analysis
The Lions opened as 6.5-point favorites on Monday, but that line has shrunk to -3.5 with the news that Swift and St. Brown would be sidelined. Pro Bowl guard Jonah Jackson is also questionable after missing practice on Thursday. Tight end T.J. Hockenson plus receivers Josh Reynolds and D.J. Chark also have lower body injuries which could hinder them even if they do play.
The Lions might be just 1-2 SU this season but have been very competitive in every game and have gone 3-0 ATS. In their season-opener, they were edged 38-35 by the Eagles, who are now the last unbeaten team in the league. In Week 2, they convincingly beat the Commanders 36-27, and last week squandered a fourth-quarter lead to lose by four points on the road in Minnesota.
The Seahawks limited the Broncos to just 16 points in Week 1, but they surrendered 433 yards in that contest and were fortunate that Denver went 0-4 in the red zone with a pair of fumbles at the goal line. They followed up on that upset victory with an ugly 27-7 loss in Week 2, where Seattle was held to just 216 yards. Last week, they fell 27-23 to the Falcons at home.
The Seahawks traded away franchise quarterback Russell Wilson in the offseason and averaged just 234.5 yards and 12.0 points per game in their first two contests of the year with Smith under center.
However, those contests were against stingy stop-units in the Broncos and 49ers, and when they faced a weak defense last week, they torched the Falcons for 420 yards. They should be able to have some decent success against a Lions' defense that has struggled thus far.
Seahawks vs Lions Over/Under analysis
It's tough to handicap the total in this one with the injuries on Detroit's side. The Lions have been very explosive on offense this season, ranking eighth in the league in EPA/Play and third in Rush EPA, but playing without Swift (and possibly Jackson) will hurt that formidable ground game.
Meanwhile, Jared Goff will really miss St. Brown, who tied an NFL record for the most consecutive games with at least eight catches before that streak was ultimately snapped last week.
The Seahawks have been awful on the defensive side of the ball, ranking last in the league in EPA/Play and 30th in the league in DVOA defense, according to Football Outsiders. They've been especially bad against the pass, where they are dead-last in dropback EPA and second-last in DVOA pass defense.
The Lions haven't been much better with a defense that is 28th in EPA/Play and ranks 22nd in DVOA.
Seahawks vs Lions betting trend to know
The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Seahawks vs. Lions.
Seahawks vs Lions game info
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, October 2, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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Seahawks vs Lions weather
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