It appears the weather in Western New York was just a little too “wild” for NFL Wild Card Weekend, forcing the league to postpone Sunday’s showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills to Monday afternoon.
High winds and lake-effect snow in the Orchard Park area quickly became a threat to public safety and state and league officials decided to move the game Saturday afternoon, with Monday’s forecast a little friendlier.
That sent shockwaves through the NFL odds, with sportsbooks having to adjust their numbers — markets that were bet into on the premise that game-day conditions would be extremely disruptive.
That left many bettors, who tried to factor the weather into their handicapping, holding tickets that didn’t reflect the forecast for Monday’s game. And depending on your sportsbooks’ house rules around these situations, many of those wagers are still in action.
All we can do now is look at what Mother Nature has left for Upstate New York and how Monday’s weather will impact your adjusted NFL picks. Here’s the latest betting weather report, with info you'll need before making your Steelers vs. Bills picks.
Be sure to also check out our Eagles vs. Buccaneers weather report as well as our Steelers vs. Bills prop picks.
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Steelers at Bills weather
While the wind is the most disruptive element when it comes to football betting, it was ultimately the snow that forced the game to be moved from Sunday to Monday.
Earlier in the week, the forecast called for possible flurries throughout but with Lake Erie running warm with little ice coverage for this time of year, lake-effect snow quickly became a possibility. That threatened Western New York with a massive snow dump in a short amount of time (as much as 20 inches between Saturday night and Monday afternoon).
Most weather models expect the snow to stop before Monday’s 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff, though there is a chance of squalls and blowing snow throughout. Field conditions should be clear at Highmark Stadium, which is calling on Bills Mafia to help clear the stands and surrounding areas ($20 an hour if you have a strong back and a shovel).
When it comes to the winds on Monday, there’s a significant difference compared to what was expected Sunday. Those original wind models were a big reason why this total dropped from 42.5 to 33 points before the game was postponed.
Original Sunday forecasts were calling for sustained winds between 25 and 30 mph with gusts getting up to 60 mph, which would nullify any downfield passing and make kicking/punting all but impossible.
And while Monday should be breezy, the sustained winds are expected to blow at 15 mph with gusts reaching 34 mph and calming in the second half, down to 20 mph. Those winds will blow SW from sideline to sideline at Highmark Stadium.
That could make kicking a bit trickier in the first 30 minutes of play Monday afternoon. And in a strange move — or maybe non-move — the Over/Under on the longest field goal made is 45.5 yards at bet365, which was the same total before the game was pushed to Monday.
Pittsburgh kicker Chris Boswell has been one of the most accurate foots in football this season, making 93.5% of his field goal attempts (29-for-31). He’s 13 of 15 from 40 yards or more with a long of 57 yards this season (indoors in Las Vegas).
As for Buffalo, kicker Tyler Bass has been good on just under 83% of his field goal attempts (24-for-29) and is 8-for-12 from 40+ yards with a long of 54 yards (outdoors at Washington in September).
The move to Monday absolutely benefits the Bills, given their offense is dependent on deeper strikes. Buffalo tallied the most total air yards in the league and Josh Allen averages the third-highest intended air yards per pass attempt in the NFL.
For what it’s worth, I’ve never seen a quarterback cut through the wind like the strong-armed Allen does, even against some extreme wind conditions.
We’re seeing this edge not only reflected in the adjusted Over/Under total — which re-opened at 39 points and is sitting at 37.5 — but also in the way books are dealing the point spread.
Under Sunday’s conditions, the Steelers were an attractive 10-point underdog because the total plummeted, the Bills’ passing game would be ground, and not many points were projected (total as low as 33). With covering a double-digit spread a big ask in that weather, we saw the Bills dip to -9.5 at many books.
However, with the game switching to Monday and less extreme elements, books reopened Buffalo -10 and we’ve seen a trend toward the home team, with some sharper shops sitting Bills -10.5. With snow passing and winds dying down, the Buffalo air attack will be a threat.
Game-time temperatures are forecasted for the high teens and those winds will drop that to a “feels like” range around 5 degrees. Both teams are used to cold climates, so there’s no edge for either side in terms of temperatures.
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