We have two hot teams with just two defeats apiece as the Pittsburgh Steelers head to Northwest Stadium to take on the Washington Commanders on Sunday afternoon.
The Commanders are 4-0 against the spread at home, but my Steelers vs. Commanders predictions are calling for the Steelers to add to their three-game streak of covers.
Find out more in my NFL picks for November 10, with kickoff at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
Steelers vs Commanders prediction
My best bet
Steelers +3 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders would have come into this season hoping for the best but not hugely confident, and now both teams and their fan bases are overjoyed with how they’ve performed. The Steelers sit at the top of the AFC North, while the Commanders are at the summit of the NFC East. These are two teams who weren’t considered real Super Bowl contenders this season but now have just two defeats each and are in the driving seat in their respective divisions.
The Commanders have been sensational at times, and Jayden Daniels, barring something horrific, will be Offensive Rookie of the Year this season. The offense ranks second in DVOA this season, but Sunday’s game is a huge test and one they might struggle with. Despite being 4-0 against the spread at home, we’re taking the Steelers and the points.
There are two main reasons to take the Steelers: one involves them, and one involves the Commanders. Let’s start with the Commanders' 7-2 record. Those seven wins came against a Bengals team when they were at their worst early in the season, a mediocre Cardinals team, a truly awful Browns team, another terrible team in the Panthers, a poor Giants team twice, and a game against the Bears in which they escaped via an incredible Hail Mary. They have been blowing the bad teams off the field, but their record isn’t quite as impressive when you consider the team they’ve played.
The other reason for caution revolves around the Steelers. They’re a team that will be fresh following the bye and have had the best part of two weeks to plan how they will stop Daniels. If there’s one thing we know about the Steelers, it’s that they’ve historically used the bye week well. They’ve covered the spread and won outright in their past four games following the bye.
The Steelers have really impressed at times this year. We know it’s a fearsome defense, and the data backs it up with Pittsburgh’s defense ranked eighth in DVOA and fourth against the run. They have averaged just under two takeaways per game with 15, and their special teams have performed well too.
It also has to be said that the introduction of Russell Wilson into the offense, having missed the first few games, has also really helped the team, and the quarterback is playing his best football in a long time. Having a passing threat in Wilson has given the offense so much more balance and helped free up the ground game, too, with Najee Harris performing excellently under heavy usage in the past few weeks.
Coaching matters and this is a team who have consistently looked great following coaching time in the bye week. They’re well drilled, have a strong defense and should cover against a Commanders team who’ve been hugely fun to watch but might have a record inflated by their strength of schedule so far.
Steelers vs Commanders same-game parlay
Steelers +3
Najee Harris Over 63.5 rushing yards
Najee Harris anytime touchdown
In addition to our best bet for Steelers vs. Commanders, we’re also going to double down on Harris.
Firstly, we are betting for the Steelers’ running back to rush for Over 63.5 yards. The Commanders have been good against the pass this season, but they’re giving up 143 yards per game on the ground, the fourth-highest in the NFL. Before the bye week, Harris was on a tear, rushing for 100+ yards in each of his past three games.
We’re also backing Harris to find the endzone. He’s only scored twice all season, but both were in the past three weeks, a spell which has seen him dominate teams and get heavy usage. The Commanders have given up eight touchdowns to RBs in nine games, just under one per game, and it should be Harris’ turn this Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Steelers vs Commanders odds
Steelers vs Commanders live odds
Steelers vs Commanders opening odds
- Spread: Pittsburgh -1.5 (-110) | Washington +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh -122 | Washington +102
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Steelers vs Commanders spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Steelers have covered in their past three games.
- The Commanders are 7-1-1 ATS this season and 4-0-0 ATS at home.
- The Over has landed in the Steelers' three previous games.
- The Over is 5-4 in Commanders games this season.
Steelers vs Commanders betting trend to know
The Steelers are 3-0-0 ATS across their past three games. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Commanders.
Steelers vs Commanders game info
| Location: | Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-10-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Steelers vs Commanders latest injuries
Steelers vs Commanders weather
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