In what may go down as Mike Tomlin’s best coaching job in a season full of uncertainty, the first game of the final week of the regular season holds plenty of intrigue. The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Baltimore in desperate need of a win and take on a Ravens team that won’t be suiting up Lamar Jackson.
Without Jackson — the current favorite to win NFL MVP by a wide margin — the NFL odds have the Steelers as 4-point road favorites in a game that’s tough to predict. Given the circumstances of the game, betting on a Pittsburgh playmaker looks like the best move.
Find out where my best bets lie in my free NFL picks for Steelers vs. Ravens on January 6.
For more analysis on this game, check out our Steelers vs. Ravens prop bets and George Pickens odds and props spotlight!
Steelers vs Ravens odds
Steelers vs Ravens predictions
The Baltimore Ravens have been the best team in the AFC this season by a mile, and not just because of Jackson’s MVP play. This defense has been dominant, putting opposing offenses in holes they can’t dig out of all season.
However, with the Ravens having nothing to gain and the likelihood that multiple starters won’t be playing late into the game, I’ve got to look at where the Pittsburgh Steelers can exploit them to find value.
Baltimore's defense ranks second in EPA per play this season and second in EPA per dropback due to its pass rush, athleticism at linebacker, and loaded secondary. But where it hasn’t been shutting teams down is in the run game. Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald’s unit ranks just 14th in EPA per rush, and from Week 9 onward, it’s ranked 24th.
That pairs perfectly with the way Pittsburgh’s been able to run the ball as of late. Ever since Mason Rudolph got the nod against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Steelers' run game has come alive behind its one-two punch of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
With the unpredictability around who will be taking the field for the Baltimore defense, most books aren’t offering rushing lines for Harris or Warren yet. But a few do have both backs listed as anytime touchdown scorers.
Pittsburgh's offense has been inconsistent at best. Yet, it’s still been in the top half of the league in EPA per rush thanks in part to Harris having his best season in the black and gold. Being held back by poor quarterback play and worse play-calling from Matt Canada for much of the season, Harris’ statistical output had been impacted... and as a result, he’s seen fewer carries this season.
Harris has done more with his opportunities than ever before and is coming off arguably one of the best games of his career against the Seattle Seahawks — putting up two TDs and 122 rushing yards on 27 carries.
Two big pieces to unlocking Harris this season have come as a result of two personnel moves by Tomlin. First, the firing of Canada, and then Rudolph stepping into the starting QB role. Since Canada was fired ahead of Week 12 and running backs coach Eddie Faulkner was promoted to interim offensive coordinator with quarterback coach Mike Sullivan named play caller, the Steelers' offense has jumped up to 17th in EPA per play.
Over those six games with Faulkner and Sullivan running the offense, Harris is averaging 16.8 carries for 70.6 rushing yards and has found the end zone four times. In his first 10 games with Canada, he averaged just 12.8 carries for 49.9 rushing yards and scored only three times.
So not only is Harris turning in his most efficient year as a runner with a career-high four yards per carry and a career-best 3.9 efficiency score per Next Gen Stats, but he’s also benefited from the moves around him.
My best bet: Najee Harris anytime touchdown (+150 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Steelers vs Ravens same-game parlay
Najee Harris anytime touchdown
Steelers team total Over 19.5
Steelers -4
The Steelers offense has been a completely different animal the last two games with Rudolph under center. The veteran QB has been far more capable than Trubisky and much more aggressive than Pickett.
The biggest difference has been his ability to work his reads and get the ball in his playmaker's hands. In each of the last two games, Harris, Warren, George Pickens, and Diontae Johnson have made big plays.
In two games with Rudolph, the Steelers are averaging 32 points per game. It’s like an entirely different offense is taking the field, and given Baltimore has nothing to play for, Pittsburgh should be able to put this game away.
It helps that the defense still ranks 11th in EPA per play to complement this newfound offensive juggernaut.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Steelers vs Ravens spread and Over/Under analysis
With Baltimore being the best team in the AFC, some books opened with the Ravens as two-point favorites, but quickly shifted when it became clear the team would be resting starters. Most books now have the Steelers favored by 3.5 to four points.
These are two of the better teams against the spread, with the Ravens 11-5 and the Steelers 9-7. In the first matchup, the Steelers won 17-10 as 4.5-point underdogs.
Since Jackson won’t be playing and Tyler Huntley will be getting the start, the total has been dropping. It opened as high as 44 at some books and has come down to 35 to 35.5 pretty much everywhere.
The Steelers have struggled to hit the Over this season, going 6-10, while the Ravens are 8-8 betting the Over. The total was 38.5 in the first game between these two and the Under easily hit.
Steelers vs Ravens betting trend to know
The Steelers have hit the team total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.50 Units / 19% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Ravens.
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Steelers vs Ravens game info
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, January 6, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Opening odds: | Ravens -3.5, 44 |
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