With just a month left in the 2022 NFL season, Super Bowl odds continue to take shape, with the San Francisco 49ers moving into the Top 5 despite turning to Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy at quarterback.
The Niners entered this season with futures odds of +1,600 but have surged up the board after a 9-4 start. They were at +900 entering Week 14, and after a dominant victory against the Buccaneers have moved to +800.
With a dominant defense and a rookie quarterback getting the job done, we break down the 49ers' Super Bowl 57 futures heading into Week 15.
Latest San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +800 |
| To win division | -2,000 |
| To win conference | +330 |
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of December 13, 2022.
Latest San Francisco 49ers odds movement
Following their shutout win against the Saints in Week 12, the San Francisco 49ers' futures odds shifted to +650. However, after losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo to a season-ending foot injury the following week, that number dropped to +1,000. They have since bounced back to +800 with oddsmakers showing confidence in Brock Purdy and the Niners following a 35-7 rout of the Bucs.
Purdy took over when Garoppolo went down in Week 13, throwing for 210 yards and two scores against the Dolphins. He proved his debut was no fluke by looking even better on Sunday, completing 76% of his passes for 185 yards and a pair of touchdowns against a solid Tampa Bay secondary.
Purdy was the final pick in April's NFL draft, but that understates his college success where he was the winningest QB in Iowa State history and was a two-time first-team All-Big 12 selection. He won't be expected to carry the team since the Niners also boast an elite defense and game-breaking playmakers on offense.
San Francisco's defense ranks second in the league in EPA/play and could get even better in the coming weeks with its banged-up defensive line starting to get healthy.
All-Pro wide receiver Deebo Samuel went down with an MCL sprain in Week 14 but is expected to return at some point during the regular season. Until then, Christian McCaffrey should thrive in Kyle Shanahan's system — although he was limited in practice on Monday due to ongoing knee issues.
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San Francisco 49ers odds outlook
Next up for the Niners is a road date against the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. After that, they close out their season with a relatively easy stretch that sees them play the Commanders, Raiders, and Cardinals.
With the status of both Purdy and McCaffrey up in the air for Thursday, the Niners could be in a tough spot on a short week. If Purdy regresses in the next few games or the Niners come away with an upset loss, we could see a sharp increase in their Super Bowl odds.
While the 49ers likely won't be able to catch the 12-1 Eagles for the No. 1 seed, getting the No. 2 seed might give them a safer path through the playoffs where they can avoid playing the Cowboys and Eagles until the NFC Finals.
San Francisco 49ers upcoming schedule
December 15 - @ Seattle
The 49ers don't have much time to bask in their recent victory, heading to Lumen Field to take on the Seahawks as 3.5-point road faves on Thursday.
Purdy is considered day-to-day due to an oblique and rib injury and might not be able to suit up on a short week. If he isn't good to go, the Niners will turn to journeyman Josh Johnson who has fewer than 100 pass attempts over the last four years.
Thankfully for San Fran bettors, the Seahawks have dropped three of their last four games and rank 27th in the league in defensive EPA.
December 24 - vs Washington
The Commanders look like San Francisco's toughest remaining opponent. Washington has gone 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games and is second in the NFL in EPA/play against the run, which could lead to San Francisco's ground game being kept in check.
January 1 - @ Las Vegas
The 49ers' stingy stop unit could find itself tested on the road by an explosive Raiders attack that has Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. That said, Vegas is far worse on the other side of the ball where it ranks 31st in defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders.
January 8 - vs Arizona
Depending on how the rest of the season shakes out, the 49ers might not be too invested in their season finale. But if they do need to win, they should be able to do so against a 4-9 Cardinals team that just lost Kyler Murray to a season-ending ACL injury.
