If I’ve learned anything about NFL survivor pool picks through three weeks of the 2021 season, it’s not to get cute.
I’ve made three selections based on the best survivor pool strategies out there, but those selections have had the lifespan of a carnival goldfish.
On the opposite end of the survivor pool plan, I’ve selected from the biggest favorites through the first three weeks and we’re still alive as the schedule chugs into October.
Keep those contrasting results in mind when absorbing my Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks.
My pick: New Orleans Saints
Through hurricanes and stadium fires, the Saints are finally back in the Superdome in Week 4. New Orleans plays its official home opener against the 0-3 New York Giants after being displaced for the first month of the schedule.
New Orleans is coming off an impressive win at Gillette Stadium last weekend, cracking the Patriots for 28 points, including a pick-6 TD, and looks to be back on track after some up-and-down results in those opening three games.
The Saints have an implied win probability of 78.26 percent (the second-highest mark of Week 4) yet find themselves as the fourth most popular pick in NFL survivor pools. Selecting NOLA does take a Thanksgiving team off the table — as the Circa Survivor Pool will use the holiday Thursday as its own week — but this pick walks the line between "safe" and "savvy."
Safest pick: Buffalo Bills
Buffalo holds the title belt as the biggest favorite of the 2021 season so far, touting an implied win probability of 92.86 percent.
Part of that has to do with this offense amassing 78 total points the past two weeks and some of it — most of it — is because Buffalo hosts a horrible Houston squad and rookie QB Davis Mills. Add to that some wet weather forecasted for Orchard Park, and the Texans will feel a million miles from the indoor track of NRG Stadium.
The Bills are the belle of the Week 4 survivor pool ball, showing up as the pick in as many as 37 percent of pools this Sunday. And why not? Bookies have them installed as 16.5-point home favorites.
Going back to 1985, only 12 of the 167 teams set as favorites of more than two touchdowns in the regular season have lost outright. Granted, two of those upsets happened last year. But that’s 2020 for you…
Here’s a look at the Top 5 favorites, in terms of moneyline odds and implied probability, for Week 4:
| Team | Moneyline odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | -1,300 | 92.86% |
| New Orleans | -360 | 78.26% |
| Tennessee | -350 | 77.78% |
| Cincinnati | -340 | 77.27% |
| Kansas City | -330 | 76.74% |
Odds above current at time of publish. Check live NFL moneyline odds and use our odds converter to convert any line to implied probability.
Team to avoid: Green Bay Packers
While last week’s “team to avoid” didn’t lose, anyone who picked the Raiders to beat the Dolphins dropped about five years off their lifespan with that crazy comeback and overtime fiasco.
The Week 4 pick to pass is Green Bay over Pittsburgh. Neither of these gatekeeper teams has looked fantastic to start 2021. The Steelers lost two straight at home, which never happens, but this defense is still among the league’s elite.
The Packers, on the other hand, haven’t played a complete game yet. Green Bay was rolled in Week 1, played a good second half after trailing 17-14 versus Detroit in Week 2, and needed some classic Aaron Rodgers magic to avoid a collapse after leading 17-0 at San Francisco in Week 3.
The Cheeseheads boast an implied win probability of 75 percent and have garnered just two percent of NFL survivor pool picks as of Thursday. Green Bay is also featured on the Christmas Day slate, taking on the Browns, so you may not want to narrow your options if your personal pool is treating that three-game Xmas slate as a separate week.
2021 survivor pool pick results
| Week | Survivor Pick | Result | Safe Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota | LOSS | L.A. Rams | WIN |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | LOSS | Tampa Bay | WIN |
| 3 | Kansas City | LOSS | Denver | WIN |
