If you’ve made it to Week 17 in your NFL survivor pool, "visions of sugar plums" aren’t the only thing dancing through your head this holiday week.
With only two weeks left, any surviving poolies can’t help but daydream about their potential winnings — like the Grand Prize in Covers’ 10K Pro Football Survivor Contest.
I, unfortunately, am not allowed to have those dreams due to my survivor run ending in Week 12. But, for the sake of this weekly article, I’m still playing along and limiting myself to just my remaining teams.
Here are my favorite Week 17 survivor pool NFL picks, including the "safest" pick, according to the NFL odds.
Teams used: Buffalo, L.A. Chargers, Seattle, Houston, Chicago, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Washington (X), Tampa Bay, Miami, Arizona
Best survivor pool bets for Week 17
Click on each pick to read the full analysis.
Covers Week 17 survivor pool picks
Indianapolis Colts
Opponent: at N.Y. Giants
Moneyline odds: -450 (82% implied win probability)
I have a strict rule: don’t mess with the AFC South.
This division is a bag of cats and I don’t think I’ve won a single wager when an AFC South team was involved this season. But, here we are in Week 17 trusting the two-faced Indianapolis Colts to just win on the road in East Rutherford against the New York Giants.
Sounds simple enough. But things are never simple in the AFC South.
Indianapolis is still alive in the postseason hunt. That could all change when the Broncos battle the Bengals on Saturday. If Denver wins, the Colts are cooked and the motivation to make it happen against the G-Men is lacking.
That said, New York is soooooooo bad. I’d rather trust the Giants to be terrible than put my faith in the Colts to be consistent. Those things cancel each other out in Week 17. Thoughts and prayers.
Safest Week 17 survivor pool picks
Buffalo Bills
Opponent: vs. New York Jets
Moneyline odds: -520 (85% implied win probability)
Once again, the Buffalo Bills are the safest pick on the Week 17 board… according to the odds.
Anyone who selected Buffalo to get past New England in Week 16 had their butt puckered for three quarters on Sunday afternoon before the Bills pulled away.
If you’ve been able to holster the Bills all this time, you’ve earned a stress-free win. But much like in the Colts' pick, earlier contests could influence the motivation of the favorite.
Buffalo already has the AFC East wrapped up and is chasing the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed in the conference. However, if Kansas City wins at Pittsburgh on Xmas Day, it earns top billing in the AFC and the Bills have less to play for in Week 17.
Luckily, the New York Jets likely all got tickets to Cancun for Christmas, so there’s a good shot Gang Green doesn’t show up for what looks to be a cold and windy outing in Orchard Park.
