The pirate ship was supposed to sink to the bottom of the NFC in the wake of Tom Brady’s retirement, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were extremely buoyant for NFL bettors, finishing the 2023 season 9-8 SU and 11-6 ATS.
Unlike last year, this season carries expectations after another NFC South title and strong postseason showing, including the reboot of Baker Mayfield. NFL odds have Tampa Bay’s win total at 7.5 (Over -150) and the look-ahead lines install the Bucs as point-spread favorites nine times.
Preseason prognostications vary for the Buccaneers. NFC South futures put them behind the new-look Falcons (+320 vs. -120), who are garnering overwhelming support to win the division by futures bettors (topping ticket and handle count). Yet, preview mags and analysts are bullish on the Buccos.
We enter those murky pirate waters in my 2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL betting preview and NFL picks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +8000 |
| Win conference | +3500 |
| Win division | +320 |
| Make playoffs | +145 |
| Over 7.5 wins | -150 |
| Under 7.5 wins | +125 |
Best futures bet: Over 7.5 Wins (-150)
If you’ve read my Falcons season preview, you’ll see that I’m not as optimistic about the Falcons as the betting markets. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' schedule is almost as easy as Atlanta’s and you can quickly count to eight wins without getting too deep into the weeds.
Consistency is the name of the game for the Buccaneers, who have a nice blend of budding youngsters and veteran anchors. All in all, 17 starters are back in action. Even with the notable switch at offensive coordinator, Baker Mayfield finds familiarity in new OC Liam Coen and a standout receiving corps.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at a glance: Banking on Baker
Mayfield is undergoing a “John Travolta mid-90’s” resurgence after wrapping 2023 just outside the Top 10 in many advanced passing metrics. He needs help from the ground game and support from the stop unit, which sits Bottom 10 in many preseason polls.
What will win bets: Passing game
It's funny. The offense, specifically the Mayfield-led air attack, was in the “what will lose bets” spot in my 2023 Tampa Bay preview. Well, include me among the long list of folks that Baker and the Bucs dunked on.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are a top-tier receiving combo and the 2024 calendar features plenty of teams with problems protecting against the pass. Nine of the Bucs’ opponents ranked in the back half in terms of EPA allowed per dropback last season, with seven sitting 21st or worse. Five of those porous pass defenses show up in the opening five games.
What will lose bets: Defense
Defense has been the Bucs’ identity in recent years, but the 2023 team was less than average. Todd Bowles' blitz-happy schemes weren’t getting pressure on passers, and rival QBs picked Tampa apart. With a bad front seven, that may not change in 2024.
The team’s late-season surge that secured the division crown — 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in last six games — came against sub-par QB competition. Overall, the Buccaneers faced some bad passers: Carr twice, Ridder twice, Young twice, Minshew, Levis, an injured Lawrence, and Fields. This stop unit could be worse than we think.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers schedule + spot bet: Southern hospitality
The Bucs’ upcoming calendar is highlighted by some very good teams: Detroit, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Kansas City, San Francisco, and Dallas. In and around those challenges, however, is a collection of cupcakes, especially if Atlanta stumbles.
The look-ahead lines have Tampa Bay as a fave in nine games and the win total is bouncing between 7.5 and 8.5 depending on where you wager. The toughest stretch of sked is between Week 7 and Week 10, but four of those five clashes are inside Raymond James Stadium (vs. BAL +5, vs. ATL -1, at KC +7, vs. SF +5) before a much-needed bye in Week 11.
The home stretch has the Bucs in plenty of winnable games, offering value to buyback their divisional futures and adjusted win total. They face Carolina twice, the Giants, Raiders, Chargers, Cowboys and Saints. Tampa is a favorite in five of those final seven contests. Under Bowles, the team is 12-8 SU and 7-12-1 ATS including a 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS mark last season.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | vs. Washington |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | @ Detroit |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | vs. Denver |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | vs. Philadelphia |
| 5 | Thursday, October 3 | @ Atlanta |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | @ New Orleans |
| 7 | Monday, October 21 | vs. Baltimore |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | vs. Atlanta |
| 9 | Monday, November 4 | @ Kansas City |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | vs. San Francisco |
| 11 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | @ New York (G) |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | @ Carolina |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | vs. Las Vegas |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | @ Los Angeles (C) |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | @ Dallas |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | vs. Carolina |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | vs. New Orleans |
Spot bet: Week 16 @ Dallas (+4.5, 46.5)
The post-bye schedule mentioned above does come with a snarling schedule spot in Week 16. Tampa Bay travels to Dallas for Sunday Night Football, playing its second straight road game and fourth away tilt in five weeks.
The Bucs were the best road bet in the NFL last season, finishing 5-4 SU and 8-1 ATS as a visitor in the regular season. They drew points in eight of those nine outings, getting four or more in five road showings.
Mayfield of dreams
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +7500 |
| To win OPOY | +15000 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +2800 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +4000 |
| To lead NFL in INT | +1200 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 23.5 passing TD | -110 |
| Under 23.5 passing TD | -110 |
| 25+ passing TD | +120 |
| 30+ passing TD | +600 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 3,650.5 passing yards | +100 |
| Under 3,650.5 passing yards | -125 |
| 4,000+ passing TD | +300 |
| 4,500+ passing TD | +2200 |
Best prop: Baker Mayfield Over 3,650.5 passing yards (+100)
Tampa Bay made its feelings on Mayfield clear in the form of a three-year, $115 million contract. He’ll get a chance to prove he’s worth that paycheck in 2024, with the Bucs coming up against some bad pass defenses.
Player projections range from just shy of 4,000 to almost 4,300 yards through the air, which make sense based on his quality of receivers, pass protection, and lack of run support. The Bucs threw on less than 59% of snaps in 2023 and that will increase under new OC Coen, who introduces more pre-snap motion and isn’t running for the sake of running like Dave Canales did.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers trend: Divisional Unders
Deciphering actionable trends is tough for Tampa Bay, considering odds-altering Tom Brady was the QB two seasons ago. The one consistent is Bowles — a defense-first coach that knows how to handle his business inside the division. At least on that side of the ball.
In his two years as head coach, Bowles’ Bucs are 4-8 Over/Under in NFC South showdowns and have allowed more than 21 points in only four of those dozen divisional dances. That includes a 2-4 O/U count in 2023. It also helps that the NFC South has some of the shakiest QB play in the land.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers' divisional games
- Week 5 @ Atlanta (44.5)
- Week 6 @ New Orleans (43)
- Week 8 vs. Atlanta (44)
- Week 13 @ Carolina (43)
- Week 17 vs. Carolina (43)
- Week 18 vs. New Orleans (43)
Not intended for use in MA.
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