A Saturday showcase doesn’t help the Kansas City Chiefs when they host the Houston Texans in Week 16. The shorter week leaves less time for star quarterback Patrick Mahomes to heel up from an ankle injury suffered in Sunday’s win over Cleveland.
Mahomes is officially day-to-day, and while the betting markets have their own opinion on Mahomes' Week 16 status, my Texans vs. Chiefs predictions are still leaning K.C.'s way.
I look into the opening odds and initial line adjustment, giving my early NFL picks for Texans at Chiefs on December 21.
Texans vs Chiefs predictions
Early spread lean
Chiefs +2.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Patrick Mahomes’ injury had sportsbooks suffering their Week 16 numbers. Kansas City was initially a 3.5-point home favorite on the look-ahead line, but with the Super Bowl MVP up in the air, NFL odds padded the point spread with an opener of Houston -2.5.
Should Mahomes be officially ruled out, we’ll see this spread climb through the key number of a field goal, and I could see it sitting at Houston -4. That would be an adjustment of more than a touchdown when measured against the look-ahead spread.
Carson Wentz is the backup QB for Kansas City, so there is starting experience there. However, the Kansas City Chiefs wouldn’t have that Mahomes magic in crucial situations and the offense would be dumbed down from Andy Reid’s usual assortment of play calls.
Even with Wentz, this wouldn’t be a layup for the Houston Texans. Kansas City is still one of the most dangerous defenses in the league, and Houston hasn’t performed well on the road. The Texans are just 4-3 SU and 3-3-1 ATS as visitors, owning an average margin of +1.7 points in those contests.
I want to lean toward the Chiefs but I'll wait for more info on Mahomes before getting involved. Our one advantage over the bookmakers is that we don’t have to bet every spread on the board.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 40 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The look-ahead total was as high as 45.5 points for what looked like a marquee matchup in the AFC, but with Mahomes nursing a bum wheel and K.C. perhaps parking him in preparation for the playoffs, this total is down to 40.5 O/U.
With Wentz under center, the passing game will be passive in an already short-strike air attack. With Mahomes under center, the Chiefs sit third shortest in average intended air yards per pass attempt.
Should Mahomes sit, the Texans will get a healthy dose of the ground game. The Chiefs have a deep rushing corps since Isiah Pacheco returned from injury and will run those bodies into a Houston stop unit that excels at stuffing the rush.
The Texans are No. 6 in EPA allowed per carry and opponent success rate per handoff, sitting No. 2 in ESPN’s run-stop win rate metric. Houston owns a 4-9-1 Over/Under count on the season.
I’d lean Under, but again, Mahomes’ health is vital to this Week 16 line. If he’s out and the total drops too far — to 37 or shorter — there could be value in coming back on the Over.
FYI: the extended forecast for Saturday’s game at Arrowhead Stadium calls for cold temperatures that will feel like 28 degrees, with potential wind gusts of 22 mph. That could slow up the indoor team from Texas.
Texans vs Chiefs live odds
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