Texans vs Colts Prop Bets: Pittman Hits the Right Notes

Prop bet #1: Revvin' Devin

The Houston backfield belongs to Devin Singletary these days, and he took full advantage of a major uptick in touches in November and December, in part due to Dameon Pierce’s ankle injury.

With Saturday’s high stakes, I expect the Texans to ride the running game to ease the pressure on C.J. Stroud, and that should make Devin Singletary odds a popular prop pick.

He’s coming off a solid outing in Week 17, where he tallied 80 rushing yards on 16 carries, and he was even more dominant two weeks earlier with 121 yards on the ground against the Tennessee Titans.

Singletary has been efficient too, rushing for at least 4.7 yards per carry in each of his last four outings while breathing life into the visitors’ faltering ground game.

It’s no secret that the Houston pass-catching group is a little depleted, with Tank Dell sidelined and Robert Woods dealing with a hip issue, but Stroud’s willingness to sling the ball downfield should prevent the Colts from overloading against the run.

Singletary’s production hasn’t dipped on the road this season — he’s got almost identical home and away splits as a rusher — and his rushing yards prop is attractive given he’s gone past this number in three of his past four outings. Even with Pierce healthy again, I’m taking the Over.

Devin Singletary prop: Over 63.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: No Pitt sweat

After taking a big hit against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16, it was unclear whether Michael Pittman Jr. would be available for the final two games of the season. But he was back on the field last weekend and he’s going to be a central part of the Colts’ gameplan on Saturday.

Though he was held in check against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, finishing with five grabs for 46 yards, I’m putting more stock in the rest of his December outings and picking him to cash the Over on Michael Pittman Jr. odds for receiving yards.

He had 78 yards against the Steelers before leaving that game in the second quarter, and he went past the 80-yard mark in his other four outings that month, with double-digit targets in each of those contests.

Pittman Jr. has built good chemistry with Gardner Minshew and had a whopping 16 targets against the Titans in Week 13, which he turned into 105 yards and a touchdown.

Though he’s only found the end zone four times this year, he enters the final game of the regular season with 1,108 receiving yards to his name — and I like his chances of getting open against a shaky Houston secondary.

Michael Pittman Jr. prop: Over 79.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Taylor tails off

As great as Stroud has been in his rookie year, the Houston run defense deserves some spotlight too. The Texans rank fourth in the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed per game (88.5), and they stifled Derrick Henry twice in three weeks. I’m predicting similar struggles for Indy’s Jonathan Taylor on Saturday.

Houston hasn’t allowed a running back to rush for 50 yards in a game since Travis Etienne Jr. in Week 12, and I see the visitors focusing on bottling up Taylor here. 

Though Taylor had 96 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries in Week 17 against the Raiders, the Texans pose a bigger challenge and I’m taking the Under on his rushing yards on Saturday. 

It also doesn’t help that the Colts are banged up on the offensive line, with Quenton Nelson and Ryan Kelly both listed as questionable. Then there’s the possibility of Zack Moss suiting up as another backfield option for the Colts. If he’s available, Moss could take some of Taylor’s touches. 

Indy’s best path to victory is likely to attack the suspect Houston pass defense, which allows 240 yards per game, and that’s just another factor in fading these Jonathan Taylor odds.

Jonathan Taylor prop: Under 72.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)