Early Texans vs Cowboys Predictions, Picks, and Odds for MNF Week 11

We’ve got a Lone Star State rivalry on Monday Night Football when the Dallas Cowboys host the Houston Texans in Week 11.

Health has bogged down these two teams in recent weeks, leaving us to watch the injury reports closely. I look at the opening NFL odds for Monday Night Football and give my early Texans vs. Cowboys predictions and NFL picks for November 18.

Texans vs Cowboys predictions

Early spread lean
Cowboys +7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis

This non-conference contest opened with the Houston Texans as a 6.5-point road favorite in Dallas following the Texans’ tight loss to the Lions on Sunday night. Within the first 12 hours of action, that spread has surged through the key number of a touchdown and sits at Houston -7.5.

Going back to 2015, the Dallas Cowboys have been home underdogs of a touchdown or more only five times, going 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in those rare spots. That said, those past Dallas teams were much more talented than this 2024 group.

The Cowboys' offense is the biggest issue, with Dak Prescott sidelined and backup QB Cooper Rush looking rough in the loss to the Eagles on Sunday. Dallas mustered six points on 146 yards of offense and turned the ball over five times to Philadelphia.

However, the bright spot in that one-sided loss was the return of defensive standout Micah Parsons, who was very disruptive with two sacks and a tackle for a loss. Dallas is hoping to get some bodies back in the secondary in Week 11 with CB DaRon Bland recovering from injury.

The Texans could have WR Nico Collins back for Week 11 and need him, considering this offense only pumped out 23 points against Detroit despite picking off Jared Goff five times and dominating possession to the tune of 32:28.

I think the Dallas defense could shine for the home side and keep this one a little closer than this initial line move projects.

Early Over/Under lean
Under 42.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis

Dallas isn’t going to win a shootout with Houston, that’s for sure. Rush looked rotten in his season debut but is a capable backup QB and should be a little steadier in Week 11. 

That doesn’t mean he’ll air it out by any means, but the Cowboys should be able to move the chains and sustain drives longer than they did against the Eagles. It won’t equal plenty of points, with Dallas plodding in terms of offensive pace, but it will temper the Texans’ output a bit.

The Texans will be tested by the Cowboys pass rush, which ranks fourth best in pressure rate, when they have the football. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is going through a bit of a sophomore slump and sees his numbers dip under pressure. 

He’s playing in front of an offensive line rated 28th in pass block win rate at ESPN, allowing the third-highest pressure rate against and the second-most sacks on the season (34). 

Houston’s red-zone woes aren’t fixed simply by getting Collins back on the field. The Texans have scored touchdowns at just a 35.71% clip the past three games.

With neither team unable to finish drives with six points, I believe we’ll see a busy day from both kickers. Extended drives finishing in three points paints a solid picture for the Under.

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