Texans vs Giants Week 10 Picks and Predictions: Run Game Proves to be Too Much for Houston

The Houston Texans will try to improve their 1-6-1 record when they take on the 6-2 New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Despite its woeful record, Houston's against the spread record improved to 4-3-1 last Thursday, when it stayed within a generous 14-point spread at home against the undefeated Eagles. New York went into its bye week coming off a decisive 27-13 loss to the Seahawks, but most N.Y. fans would have signed up for a 6-2 record through eight games before the season began.

How will things shake out here? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Texans vs Giants on Sunday, November 13.

Texans vs Giants best odds

Texans vs Giants picks and predictions

Texans' bettors were handed a huge number of 14 points last Thursday, and the home underdogs managed to cover by two points over 8-0 Philadelphia. Now potential Houston supporters are being offered just 4.5 points, and on the road to boot.

The Giants are clearly not a better team than the Eagles, based on everything we’ve seen so far this season, but the difference wouldn’t appear to be this stark, especially with Big Blue coming back off a bye week.

Handicappers should roll with New York in Week 10. Saquon Barkley has been nearly impossible for opposing defenses to tame this year, but Seattle managed to stymie him — limiting the Penn State product to 53 yards on 20 carries.

Barkley has had the benefit of a bye, however, and draws a much more favorable matchup with the Texans’ sorry run stoppers. Houston has allowed 180.6 rushing yards per game in 2022, dead last in the NFL by a wide margin.

The Bears are next worst, with nearly 32 fewer yards allowed per contest. Barkley has crossed the 100-yard rushing plateau on three occasions this year and could easily make it four in this spot. He’s also averaged 23.6 receiving yards per game this season, giving Daniel Jones a much-needed safety valve in the passing game.

Jones has not had much help at all out wide, though at least Darius Slayton is trending in the right direction with consecutive 50-yard receiving efforts. The signal caller from Duke has not cost the Giants any wins this year, in stark contrast to his first three years in the NFL.

The same cannot be said for his opposite number here, as Davis Mills brings a 10/8 TD/INT ratio into this tilt. New York is due for some regression, but this week is not it, so lay up to 5.5 points with confidence.

My best bet: Giants -4.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Texans vs Giants spread analysis

The Texans may have covered in primetime last week, but it was their third straight up loss in a row, and their third by double-digits in 2022. Their chances of staying within a touchdown this week look slim. Rookie running back Dameon Pierce has been the lone bright spot for Houston’s offense this year, averaging 84.8 yards per game.

That includes his season-high 139-yard effort against the Eagles last Thursday. But Pierce is listed as “questionable” ahead of Week 10 due to chest and shoulder ailments, and has been limited in practice.

If he’s at less than 100% — even against a Giants’ defense that’s 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game (137.3) — it’s hard to see a path to victory for the Texans, especially when you know his opposite number in Barkley will be picking up one chunk play after another while keeping both the chains and the clock moving.

Trend bettors should note that the Texans are 7-17-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a spread win, while the Giants have covered in four of their last five overall, and are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with losing records.

Texans vs Giants Over/Under analysis

The total for this tilt is one of many hanging at a low figure as bookmakers adjust to a flood of Unders through the first half of the season. However, it’s difficult to envision these two stagnant offenses combining for enough points to cash an Over play.

Houston enters this tilt 28th in points per game at 16.6, while New York ranks 22nd at 20.4 points per game. Both teams are even worse when it comes to yards per game, with the former ranking 30th (290.5), and the latter checking in 24th (320.6).

Several trends suggest an Under is in store here, as the Giants have gone below the total in each of their last seven games in November, and in each of their last six home tilts against teams with losing road records.

The Under is also 19-7 in Big Blue’s last 26 games against teams with losing records, 8-3 in the Texans’ last 11 road games, and 5-1 in Houston’s last six road contests against teams with winning home records.

Texans vs Giants betting trend to know

The Under is 13-3 in the Giants’ last 16 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs Giants. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Giants.

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