Texans vs Jaguars Week 5 Picks and Predictions: Pierce Makes His Mark on Divisional Clash

Sunday gives us an AFC South clash with the 0-3-1 Texans traveling to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence’s team sit top of the division, although the Titans and Colts are hot on their heels. Can the sophomore QB lead his team to another important victory?

Don’t miss our NFL picks and predictions for the Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars.

Texans vs Jaguars best odds

Texans vs Jaguars picks and predictions

The Jaguars have been very impressive at times this year and the progression of Trevor Lawrence from his rookie year under Urban Meyer, to this, is huge. This is a team in the ascendency and one who look like they could be serious players in the coming years, but they aren’t quite there yet. 

In the past six games between the Jags and Texans, the underdog has covered five times, showing how close these games are. That means we don’t need to worry too much about game script.

Without focusing on the Texans needing to chase the game by passing, we can focus on their best offensive weapon, Dameon Pierce. The former Florida man was drafted in the fourth round of this year’s draft but he soon showed his brilliance, becoming the starter in a backfield that was devoid of talent. 

Pierce has already rushed for 313 yards after just getting 33 yards in Week 1. His yardage has increased every week, getting 131 yards on the ground last week. His line for this game sits at 65.5 and you have to think that he covers that.

If you need any more proof, then look at his performance last week. Not only did he get 131 rushing yards but he also had every single running back carry, with Rex Burkhead only left with some action in the passing game, where he had fewer receptions than Pierce too. 

Most impressive is that was the second game this season in which Pierce has had every RB carry, a league-high. It’s clear that the Texans view the former Gator as an every-down back and for those reasons, we should hit Over 65.5 rushing yards here.

My best bet: Dameon Pierce Over 65.5 rushing yards (-114)

Texans vs Jaguars spread analysis

The Jaguars have really excelled this season and rightfully sit top of the division. They are 2-2 but shouldn’t really have lost in the opening week to the Commanders and lost in Week 4 to the Eagles, the best team currently in the NFC. In that time, they’ve also destroyed divisional rivals the Colts 24-0 and beat the Chargers. 

Make no mistake, this Jaguars team is seriously impressive. We can talk about the brilliance of Lawrence and some of his playmakers, such as Christian Kirk, who is showing why he got the big contract in the summer, and James Robinson, who has come back from his Achilles injury in incredible form, but it’s the defense that deserves a lot of praise.

Josh Allen has been great since arriving in Jacksonville but the edge rusher has been boosted by the arrival of Travon Walker, the first overall pick in this year’s draft, and the pair look like a great pass rush duo for years to come. Even more impressive has been the arrival of Devin Lloyd, who is arguably the defensive rookie through four weeks of the season.

The Jaguars are 7-point favorites, coming in from 7.5-point favorites when the line opened. I’d lean towards the Jaguars covering here, but it’s worth remembering that the Texans have covered in six of the past eight meetings in Jacksonville.

Texans vs Jaguars Over/Under analysis

I’ve not got a strong lean on the points total for this game, which currently sits at 43.5 having originally been 44 when the line opened. The Texans have scored at least 20 points in three of four games so far this season and the Jaguars in all four, including 38 points in a demolition of the Chargers. You do need to take into account the strength of the Jaguars’ defense.

The Under is 6-1 in the Jags’ past seven games at TIAA Bank Field and 7-2 in the Texans’ past nine trips on the road. It’s also worth flagging that the Under in 4-1 in the Jaguars’ previous five games against divisional rivals. I’d lean towards the Under if I were forced to make a pick on this but it really could go either way.

Texans vs Jaguars betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in the Jaguars' last seven home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Jaguars.

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