Texans vs Panthers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 8: Young & Co. Benefit From Offensive Shakeup

While it may not be a marquee matchup on the NFL Week 8 odds board, football bettors get a battle between the top two quarterbacks selected in the 2023 NFL Draft.

C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans visit Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers, with the home team getting a field goal from the NFL odds this Sunday afternoon.

Stroud is off to a stronger start to his pro career, helping Houston bring a 3-3 record (4-2 against the spread) into their Week 7 bye. Young, on the other hand, has struggled through a 0-6 start (1-5 ATS) but hopes a change at play-caller coming out of the bye week can wake up the Panthers’ passing game.

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for this non-conference clash and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Texans vs. Panthers on October 29.

Texans vs Panthers odds

Texans vs Panthers predictions

The Houston Texans and Carolina Panthers are both coming off a Week 7 bye but while one team welcomed the break, the other didn’t want to stop.

Houston was building momentum with three wins in its past four games despite being outgained in three of those four outings. That was the case over the past two contests, with the Texans going 1-1 but outgained by a collective 235 yards against the Saints and Falcons.

The Panthers, however, welcomed the hiatus with open arms. The team was dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball and needed to push pause on a 0-6 start to the schedule.

Not only does that two-week breather allow some busted bodies to return, but it also allotted Carolina time to hand the play-calling duties over to new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, who will roll out a different scheme when the Panthers take the field in Week 8.

Coming from Sean McVay’s school of offense, Brown is implementing much more pre-snap motion and misdirection in order to free up his wide receivers and exploit mismatches in coverage.

That should help rookie quarterback Bryce Young immensely, as he’s had a tough time finding open bodies in this passing game. It will also slow things down for the first-year passer, getting away from the no-huddle sets head coach Frank Reich was rolling out in the opening six games. Reich, by the way, is 5-0 ATS off a bye as a head coach.

Carolina’s offensive approach has been skewed due to disastrous defensive efforts against top-tier attacks, like Seattle, Detroit, and Miami. The Panthers quickly fell behind and were forced to play fast and go one-dimensional, throwing on 64.36% of snaps — the fourth-highest pass rate in the league.

Expect better separation from the receivers and an uptick in tight end looks and rushing attempts as Brown tries to find balance within this playbook. The Panthers will also benefit from playing at home for just the second time since September 18, allowing for much better communication after contending with rival crowds on play calls from the rookie QB.

Houston could be the perfect opponent to integrate this shift in scheme against, as the Texans have hemorrhaged big yardage in recent showings. Houston is not a very disruptive defense, among the bottom of the league in pressure and sacks, while allowing a 48% success rate per dropback.

I believe the market is giving the Texans too much credit for their recent success, which has come against inconsistent competition in New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta. The Panthers were in desperate need of a shake-up and this bye week benefits them greatly.

My best bet: Panthers +3 (-110 at bet365) 
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Texans vs Panthers same-game parlay

Panthers +3.5

Panthers team total Over 20.5

Jonathan Mingo Over 27.5 receiving yards

50% boost available

+324 +486 at FanDuel

When I wrote the above pick, Carolina was listed at +3. Some books now have the Panthers at +3.5, so we’ll take the half-point hook on the home dog in the SGP.

With Brown taking over the offense, expect Carolina to find better balance and create more space for receivers.

One of those receivers will be Jonathan Mingo, who is healthy off the bye and projected to clear his yardage prop of 27.5 against a bad Texans defense.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Texans vs Panthers spread and Over/Under analysis

The offseason odds listed Carolina as a 3-point home favorite back in the summer, but this line has since flip-flopped after the Panthers’ putrid start to the season. With both sides coming off a bye week, Houston opened -3 and that spread has stayed put in the first few days of action.

According to Covers Consensus, 72% of early picks are laying the field goal with Houston. This marks just the fourth time the Texans have been a road favorite since 2020, with the team going 3-1 straight up but 1-2-1 ATS in those previous spots as away chalk.

Considering the bad start for Carolina, it’s easy to see why the market would have moved toward the Texans. Houston has won three of its last four, most recently edging New Orleans 2-13 at home on October 15.

C.J. Stroud has played beyond his years in that six-game start to his NFL career, most notably being patient with the football and taking what the defenses give him. He’s thrown only one interception so far, but his completion rate has started to nosedive the past three games, dropping below 54% in that span.

The Panthers defense has been toothless in the last four games, due in large part to injuries. Those ailments came at a bad spot in the schedule, with high-octane opponents like Seattle, Detroit, and Miami on the schedule — resulting in 121 total points against those three foes.

The bye week should bring back healthy bodies to the Panthers defensive depth chart while also allowing the offense to pivot to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown for play-calling duties.

After ranking 27th in EPA per play and second-last in yards per pass attempt under head coach Frank Reich’s calls, Carolina is looking for Brown to wake up the wide receivers. Young has been extremely accurate when given open targets, but those chances have been few and far between in the opening six games.

The Texans’ defense has played with fire under new head coach DeMeco Ryans, allowing 21 points or less in their last four games. Houston is 11th in EPA allowed per play in the span but hasn’t played the most explosive offensive opposition either.

There are plenty of glaring weaknesses for this Texans’ stop unit, which isn’t generating much pressure, has a league-low nine sacks, a league-high 60 missed tackles, and is getting pushed around for a 45.78% conversion rate on third-down stands.

Sunday’s Over/Under total opened at 41.5 points and is one of the rare numbers getting bet upwards, with early play on the Over moving this total to 43.5 points.

Carolina is 3-3 to the Over/Under, due in large part to facing those high-scoring foes with a decimated defense. Offensively, the Panthers have played a quicker tempo — 12th in second per snap — but that has a lot to do with trailing big in most games. Browns’ offense utilizes more movement before the snap and therefore takes more time off the clock before snapping the ball.

Houston is the fifth-fastest team in terms of seconds per play and has been much more effective on offense during this recent four-game span, ranking No. 7 in EPA per play since Week 3. The Texans are 2-4 to the O/U with that count reflecting some of the stronger defenses this team has faced in 2023 (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and New Orleans).

Texans vs Panthers betting trend to know

Houston is 2-14 SU and 6-9-1 ATS in non-conference games since 2020, including 1-7 SU and 3-4-1 ATS when visiting NFC foes. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Panthers.

Texans vs Panthers game info

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