Texans vs Raiders Week 7 Picks and Predictions: Pierce Hits the Ground Running

We’ve got plenty of big matchups this Sunday, but one of the most fascinating is arguably this Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders clash that sees two teams with a combined two victories fresh off their bye attempting to kickstart their seasons. We're in Week 7, and it's now or never for these squads. NFL odds have Vegas as the favorite, but will it be able to live up to its expectations?

Don’t miss our NFL betting picks and predictions for the Texans vs. Raiders.

Texans vs Raiders best odds

Texans vs Raiders picks and predictions

Both teams sit at rock bottom of their divisions with one apiece and if they have any hopes of playoff football, then they need to start winning soon. In total honesty, it’s unlikely that the Texans came into this season expecting a playoff push, but for the Raiders it was a goal — and they now sit three wins behind the Chiefs and Chargers.

There are plenty of ways to bet on this game, but I’m only interested in one man's NFL player props, and that man is Dameon Pierce. The former Florida running back was drafted in the fourth round of this year’s NFL Draft and he’s helped revamp the league’s worst rushing attack. 

Pierce is in a battle for this year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award with Breece Hall and has been a statistical darling so far. He’s had 86 carries for 412 yards, 13 catches for 57 yards, and three touchdowns.

Since Week 1 which saw Rex Burkhead take the majority of the Texans snaps, he’s been a monster and has become a bell cow for the team — accounting for 75% of the team carries this season. That’s behind only Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs.

In the past four games, his lowest rushing yardage was 69 and he’s seen a high of 131. With an average of 4.8 yards per game, he’s been dynamic and has become the best offensive weapon on a poor Texans team.

He’s got the highest broken tackle rate of any running back in the NFL this season, breaking 17.6%. He has also forced 33 missed tackles this season including 17 in the last two games — more than Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and more.

The good news is that Lovie Smith has said that Pierce “needs to get at least 20 carries a game”. With that vote of confidence from the head coach, it gives me confidence that Dameon Pierce should easily beat his rushing yards line, which currently sits at 67.5. Smash that Over now.

My best bet: Dameon Pierce Over 67.5 rushing yards (-115)

Texans vs Raiders spread analysis

The Raiders come into this as favorites, with the line moving marginally through the week. They opened as 6.5-point favorites but it’s risen slightly to 7-point favorites. Neither team is where they wanted to be this season and neither team has a particularly good or bad record against the spread — so it’s hard to use trends to predict the outcome.

Instead, we’ll look at how the teams have done on the field. The Texans have largely been anemic on offense, putting up an average of 291.2 yards of offense per game — the third lowest in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Raiders have put up 360.2 on average, which sees them rank 10th in the league. Despite an impressive performance in terms of scrimmage yards per game, Vegas hasn’t delivered the wins expected. It's put up 39 more points than the Texans in just five games each.

The concern for the Raiders is that despite the Texans allowing 414.2 scrimmage yards per game, second in behind the Lions, the Texans have actually given up fewer points despite Vegas allowing 54 yards on average less. 

That isn’t good enough and it’s cost the Raiders games, although I’d argue that they’ve faced some of the NFL’s more explosive offenses in the Chargers, Chiefs, and Cardinals. I’d expect the Raiders to win on Sunday and to cover in the process.

Texans vs Raiders Over/Under analysis

The points total has risen two whole points since opening, going from 43.5 to 45.5. With Davante Adams expected to play despite the legal situation that he’s in, I can imagine this Raiders team having quite a high-scoring performance, but will the Texans do enough to hang with them and push this score up?

I’m not sure and I’d rather leave this market alone. If I were forced then I’d probably bet the Under, but I don’t really have any strong thoughts on it. The Under is 8-2 in the Texans' past 10 games on the road and 6-2 in their last eight games on grass.

That said, the Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the teams. Either way, this isn’t a market I’d bet on and I’d suggest you stick to just backing our best bet, of which I’m very confident. 

Texans vs Raiders betting trend to know

The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in October. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Raiders.

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