Texans vs Ravens Divisional Round Player Props and NFL Bets: Flowers Remains Lamar's Favorite Target Against Houston

Just Zay When

Rookie receiver Zay Flowers didn’t take long to become one of Lamar Jackson’s top targets. 

The playmaker out of Boston College made a splash in his pro debut, catching nine of 10 passes his way for 78 yards against Houston in the season opener.

Flowers is the most targeted WR on the Baltimore Ravens roster by a mile and was last seen smoking the Miami Dolphins for 106 yards on only three catches — thanks in large part to a 75-yard home run play in Week 17.

Zay has been off for two weeks, sitting out the meaningless Week 18 game and enjoying the bye in the Wild Card Round. That time has helped him heal up from a lingering calf strain that plagued him at the end of the schedule.

This matchup with Houston suits Flowers’ skill set perfectly. He does his best work against zone defense and the Houston Texans run the eighth-highest rate of zone in the NFL, namely a lot of Cover 3 and Cover 4.

Flowers averages 13.5 yards per reception against zone and has recently torched zone-based secondaries like the Rams (60 yards) and San Francisco (72 yards). He’s also saved his best for the Baltimore faithful, thriving at home with 12.7 yards per catch (vs. 9.3 on the road).

Jackon and this Ravens air attack is by far the best passing game the Texans have faced in a long time, going back to Week 10 when Houston watched Joe Burrow burn them for 347 yards through the air with WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd boasting big days.

Player projections run hot and cold for Flowers in the Divisional Round, due to the game script laid out by the big spread and dwindling total, but the majority call for 50-plus yards. 

Some models are as short as 49.9 yards — which is right on his receiving yard Over/Under of 49.5 — while the ceiling sits closer to 66 yards. My number comes out to 58.5 yards from Flowers, which gets us comfortably Over the prop total.

Zay Flowers prop: Over 50.5 receiving yards (-101 at Caesars)

All Dogs Go To Devin

Playoff pressure on the road for a rookie QB facing the NFL’s leading defense in sacks is like an Insta-Pot with an elephant sitting on top at the bottom of the sea.

To take some of that weight off C.J. Stroud, the Texans will dish out a healthy dose of running back Devin Singletary. That could be especially true should windy conditions in MT&T Stadium ground the passing game.

Singletary just got Over his rushing prop of 65.5 yards in the Wild Card win against Cleveland, finishing with 66 yards on 13 carries. However, there was a longer 23-yard run just before the half that was erased due to a holding penalty.

Singletary’s rushing prop for the Divisional Round ranges dramatically across sportsbooks, with a low of 56.5 yards to a high of 61.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

Singletary had only 15 yards on seven carries versus the Ravens in Week 1 but was the RB2 behind Dameon Pierce to start the year, and the Texans were forced to go pass-heavy after trailing 22-6 in the third quarter of that season opener.

He’s now getting the touches to top this total, taking over as Houston’s RB1 in the second half of the season, and has marched for 60-plus yards in seven of his last 10 games overall. 

Player projections for Singletary range from lows of 44 yards — considering a possible similar game script with Houston as a big underdog — to highs of 92.3 rushing yards. 

Most models are well beyond the 57.5-yard prop total, and my projected number comes out just north of 71 yards rushing from Singletary on Sunday night.

Devin Singletary prop: Over 57.5 rushing yards (-112 at BetRivers)

Cold Day For C.J.

Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud has defied logic throughout his first pro season. 

He’s played well beyond his years, ranking better than many established passers, and dunked on anyone buying into the “first-time” playoff QB trend in the Wild Card win last weekend. 

However, Stroud’s success has been helped along by a very advantageous schedule. The Texans played one of the softest schedules in the land (27th in SOS) and benefitted from a very home-friendly slate down the stretch. 

This trip to Baltimore is just the fourth time Houston has been on the road in more than two months and is just the team’s third outdoor game in that same span. 

For Stroud, this is his first open-air contest since playing in the pouring rain in East Rutherford in Week 14, suffering a 30-6 loss to the Jets and leaving that game late with a concussion after going 10 for 23 for only 91 yards passing.

Stroud’s passing props have his yardage total as high as 240.5 yards, but that bar could be tough to touch considering conditions as well as the Ravens’ ravenous defense. 

Before even factoring in the elements, Baltimore brings a league-leading 60 sacks to the table with a pass rush that ranks No. 9 in win rate at ESPN. The Ravens are No. 2 in EPA allowed per dropback and boast the fourth-lowest success rate per pass, checking rival QBs to an average of just 192 passing yards per game.

Stroud faces that level of elite opposition in a very uncomfortable climate on Saturday. The forecast in Baltimore calls for brutal cold and winds with sustained breezes up to 18 mph and gusts topping out closer to 40 mph, blowing WNW from end to end at M&T Bank Stadium. That will cool game time temperatures to “feel like” 9 degrees.

In his limited work in outdoor venues, Stroud sees a downtick in production. His completion percentage slides from 65.5% indoors to less than 61% outside, his yards per attempt dip from 8.8 indoors to 6.9 outdoors, and his passer rating goes for a swim and shrinks from 108.3 to 85.1 in open-air venues.

Player projections for Saturday’s game are all over the place. Some peg Stroud for a monster day with a ceiling of 265 yards, given the game script of Houston playing from behind and having to go pass-heavy. Several others are also currently bouncing around the prop total at 250 yards.

However, the bulk of models are on the low end, including some trusted forecasts, which range from 227 to as low as 207 yards passing. My number came out at 227 yards from Stroud, which is just shy of his average of 231.7 yards on the road.

Mix in a Ravens offense that could stick Stroud on the sideline with a ground-heavy TOP approach, along with the Baltimore defense and detriment weather, and I’m fading the “rookie” to top his passing prop in the Divisional Round.

C.J. Stroud prop: Under 240.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel) 50% live boost available