The Houston Texans are off to the Divisional Round odds of the NFL playoffs, and their reward is a cross-country trip to play the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday.
Waiting for Houston on the East Coast isn’t just the top seed in the AFC but some winter weather, with extended forecasts calling for a cold climate and strong winds in the DMV.
Our Texans at Ravens weather report sees how those game-time conditions could impact the NFL odds and NFL picks for this 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
For more NFL postseason coverage, check out our Super Bowl odds page!
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Texans vs Ravens Weather
Before we get into the weather for Baltimore on Saturday night, let me state that the Texans haven’t played outdoors since December 17 and this will be just their third outside contest since Week 11.
The last time we saw Houston face any inclement weather, it got waxed 30-6 by the New York Jets in the driving rain in East Rutherford in Week 14. Quarterback C.J. Stroud went down with a concussion late in the fourth quarter — long after said waxing was in effect.
In fact, this will be just the fourth time the Texans have played on the road in the past 10 games. All of which factors into the spread for the Divisional Round, with the Ravens sitting between -8.5 and -9.
So, what does Mother Nature have in store for Baltimore?
Extended forecasts call for a clean track at M&T Stadium with no rain or snow expected, but winds could be an issue. Some models are predicting sustained winds of 17 mph at kickoff with gusts around 35 mph, blowing NW from end to end at M&T Stadium. Those breezes will calm a bit in the second half, but gusts are still up around 28 mph.
Depending on which way the offenses are playing, someone will be throwing into the wind.
Houston is dependent on the deeper passing attack, with Stroud ranked among the league leaders in air yards, intended air yards, and explosive plays. He averaged 8.9 yards per attempt inside the clean track of NRG Stadium but saw that average slip to 7.3 on the road and 6.9 in outdoor venues.
In a strange twist, this is Stroud’s first outdoor game since that loss to the Jets in Week 14 (due to injury) and only his sixth open-air game of the season. His completion percentage (60.6%) and passer rating (85.1) sink like a stone outdoors versus his 108.3 rating inside.
As for the Ravens, they appear more malleable to the conditions. Baltimore can go run heavy, utilize the short passing attack, and break off yards after the catch. Standout tight end Mark Andrews could also be back in action for Lamar Jackson, which would be a huge weapon in bad weather.
Special teams-wise, Baltimore has the greatest kicker in the history of the sport. To steal a quote from “Super Troopers” — “That little guy? I wouldn’t worry about that little guy.” Justin Tucker did have an off year, making only 86.5% of his FGAs, but he’s been money down the stretch with a perfect 11-for-11 mark since December.
As for Houston, kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn missed time with a quad injury in November but finished the year making 96.4% of his FGAs (27 of 28), including 10-for-10 in outdoor games.
Those stronger breezes will also impact the “feels like” temperatures Saturday. Game-time temps are expected to be in the mid-to-high 20s, but wind chill brings that down as low as 14 degrees. That gives a slight nod to the home team, as they’ve played in some colder climates before, but it has no bearing on the odds for Saturday.
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans isn’t scared of the chilly temperatures awaiting them in Baltimore. He recalled his time with the Philadelphia Eagles and their infamous snow game versus the Detroit Lions in Week 14 of the 2013 season.
“It’s fun playing in the cold weather games,” Ryans told the media, “and you kind of block out how bad it’s going to hurt, that doesn’t matter.”
“I think as long as you know what you need to wear, make sure you prepare, make sure you wear the proper things that will help you while you’re standing around on the sideline,” Ryans added. “But once you hit the field, you’re going to get cold. And, again, I would say, ‘Who cares? Let’s go.’ We’ve got to find a way to make plays.”
Saturday’s total opened as high as 46 points but has started to tick down with the windy forecast trimming the number to as low as 44 points.
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