The Houston Texans begin the C.J. Stroud era with a road game against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. The Texans are coming off an ugly campaign and another rebuilding year is on the horizon under new head coach DeMeco Ryans.
Meanwhile, the Ravens finally inked franchise quarterback Lamar Jackson to a long-term deal and look to take the step from playoff team to Super Bowl contender.
NFL betting lines have the Ravens installed as 9.5-point home favorites for this Week 1 matchup with the Over/Under at 43.5. Here are my best free Texans vs. Ravens NFL picks and predictions for September 10.
Texans vs Ravens odds
Texans vs Ravens predictions
The most glaring flaws for the Ravens over the last couple of years have been injuries and a lack of quality receiving targets for Lamar Jackson.
However, they enter this season relatively healthy and their vertical passing game has been upgraded with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken and wideouts Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers. Former first-round WR Rashod Bateman also enters the season healthy after injuries derailed a promising sophomore campaign while Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews is expected to play in Week 1 despite being hampered by a quad injury.
Truth be told, there are still plenty of questions surrounding this Baltimore aerial attack but that might not matter against the Texans. Although Will Anderson Jr. adds juiced to the pass rush and the secondary should be better after adding Jimmie Ward, Houston's run defense will be just as awful.
The Texans surrendered 170.2 rushing yards per game last year while ranking near the bottom of the league in defensive rush EPA and success rate. They will get shredded by a Ravens team that was second in the league in rush EPA and success rate while piling up 160 ypg on the ground.
On the other side of the ball, Baltimore's secondary might be its biggest weakness after the departures of Marcus Peters and Chuck Clark, and an injury to Marlon Humphrey. However, the Texans aren't built to take advantage of that weakness with a rookie QB in Stroud being surrounded by the worst WR corps in the NFL.
It's going to another long season in Houston and the Ravens will be ready to roll over them in Week 1.
My best bet: Ravens -9.5 (-110 at bet365)
Texans vs Ravens same-game parlay
Ravens -9.5
Dobbins Over 58.5 rushing yards
Collins Over 42.5 receiving yards
Since I'm backing the Ravens to cover this generous spread it makes sense to consider the Over on Dobbins' rushing yards. The 2020 second-round selection has been hindered by injuries for much of his career but after coming off the IL last December he didn't rush for fewer than 59 yards in any of his five final games.
Dobbins is an elusive back with the size to carry the rock 15+ times a game and that should be more than enough to eclipse this number against a Texans defense that can't tackle.
Nico Collins should be in line for a significant uptick in production in his third year in the league. Collins had a modest 481 receiving yards in 10 games last year but he's built a strong rapport with Stroud and should be the rookie quarterback's favorite target.
If the Texans fall behind early, they'll likely look to throw downfield and take advantage of Baltimore's suspect group of corners. That should help Collins go Over his relatively low receiving yards total.
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Texans vs Ravens spread and Over/Under analysis
We haven't seen much line movement, with some books opening at Ravens -9.5 before ticking up to -10. The total has also been relatively static and is available at 43.5 or 44 depending on the book.
The Ravens were 8-4 straight up (albeit just 4-7-1 ATS) before losing Jackson to a season-ending injury last year. It was the second straight season where Jackson missed the last five games with a lower-body injury, and they once again struggled to move the ball in his absence. After losing Jackson in Week 13 they didn't score more than 17 points in a single game and eventually got knocked out by the Bengals in the Wild Card round.
The Texans went just 3-13-1 ATS last year with an average scoring margin of minus-7.7 points per game. That said, they were 8-9 ATS and covered in three of their final four contests thanks to some big spreads.
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Texans vs Ravens betting trend to know
The Houston Texans have scored first just once in their last 10 games on the road (-8.30 Units / -80% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Ravens.
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Texans vs Ravens game info
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, September 10, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Ravens -10, 44.5 O/U |
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