Titans vs Chargers Week 15 Picks and Predictions: Herbert Airs Out Tennessee D

The Los Angeles Chargers will host the Tennessee Titans in a Week 15 game with AFC playoff implications on Sunday at SoFi Stadium.

Both teams come into this weekend with 7-6 records, but their fortunes are very different. 

Tennessee holds a two-game lead over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the race for the AFC South crown. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is tied with the New York Jets and the New England Patriots for the final Wild Card spot.

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been playing well in recent weeks, and should have all of his key weapons at his disposal against a weak Tennessee secondary. We’ll break down the matchup in our NFL picks and predictions for Titans vs. Chargers on December 18.

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Titans vs Chargers picks and predictions

Justin Herbert hasn’t put up the same kinds of numbers in 2022 as he did in his first two years in the NFL. However, that might be more about a change in approach rather than any regression in his play. Herbert is throwing fewer touchdowns — he’s only passing for a score on 3.7% of attempts, down from 5.7% last year — but he’s also giving up fewer interceptions than he has at any point so far in his career.

Herbert has had to scrounge for big plays this season while two of his best wide receivers have suffered through injuries. Keenan Allen has played just six games this year, while Mike Williams has played nine. Williams and Allen are the two most explosive pass catchers on the Chargers roster, averaging the most yards per game and yards per catch of anyone with significant playing time.

With both receivers back in the lineup over the past few weeks, Herbert’s performances have been improving. He has thrown for at least 274 yards in each of his past four games, and over 330 in each of his last two. Over the past four weeks, Herbert has thrown seven touchdowns while tossing only a single interception.

If the Chargers are going to make a playoff run, it will be behind Herbert and the passing game. Los Angeles is one of the more one-dimensional offenses in the NFL, ranking third in passing yardage (272.9 yards per game), but 31st in rushing yardage (84.5 per game). 

That gameplan lines up perfectly against the Titans defense. While Tennessee has been adept at shutting down the run all year long, it’s struggled against the pass, allowing 283.7 yards per game through the air. That’s the second-worst mark in the NFL. The Titans are also among the worst teams in the league on a play-by-play basis, allowing seven yards per pass attempt.

Regardless of whether or not it will be enough for the Chargers to win on Sunday, we can be sure that they will try to move the ball through the air. If the play of Herbert and the Tennessee defense continue as we’ve seen so far this year, then Los Angeles should find plenty of success in the passing game. 

This looks like another 300+ passing yardage game for Herbert. While the yardage props on the Chargers quarterback are all over the place, we can find numbers safely below 300. I’m jumping on the market’s lowest number and taking the Over.

My best bet: Justin Herbert Over 290.5 yards passing (-115)

Titans vs Chargers

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Titans vs Chargers spread analysis

The Chargers opened this game as a field-goal favorite. While the line has bounced around slightly throughout the week, Los Angeles -3 is still the main line at almost all sites.

I’ve already written about how Herbert and the Chargers passing attack should be able to rip into the Titans secondary. That could well be the key matchup in Sunday’s game, as 

Tennessee isn’t well equipped to compete in a shootout. The Titans are scoring just 18.5 points per game this year and are among the league’s worst passing attacks, averaging just 175.7 yards per game through the air.

Tennessee has also been on a slide as of late. The Titans have lost three straight, and didn’t look any better last week after the firing of general manager Jon Robinson, losing 36-22 at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars in perhaps the team’s worst performance of the year.

While the Titans could once hang their hats on what appeared to be an elite defense, they’ve given up 71 points over the last two weeks. Even star running back Derrick Henry has been struggling: while he bounced back from a couple subpar performances by rushing for 121 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars, he also coughed up two fumbles in the game.

Everything is trending towards the Chargers, and they also get to play this game in Los Angeles. I’m on the Chargers -3 in a game that looks like it is being served up on a platter for LA. 

Titans vs Chargers Over/Under analysis

The total for Sunday’s game opened at 45.5, with bettors pushing that number upwards over the course of the week. The Over/Under now stands at 46.5 at most books.

While Tennessee gave up 36 points last week to the Jaguars, it doesn’t generally play in shootouts. In fact, that’s the only time in the last 10 games that the Titans have played to a total of Over 45. 

I’ve spotlighted how Herbert and the Chargers offense might be able to take advantage of the Titans secondary. However, it’s worth noting that Los Angeles doesn’t play in many high-scoring affairs, either. While only three of the Chargers’ last six games ended with a total of Under 46.5 points, only one — a 30-27 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs — went Over the 50 mark.

I’m expecting the Chargers to push the Titans a bit, which makes this week’s total reasonable. Still, the Under is the smart play if you want to bet the total. Neither of these teams scores a ton of points, and while Los Angeles will throw the ball, I’m not expecting it to score enough to push this number to 47 or higher.

Titans vs Chargers betting trend to know

The Titans are 1-8-2 against the spread in their last 11 meetings with the Chargers. Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Chargers.

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