Best NFL Touchdown Props for Week 15: The Birds and the Saints

Prop bet #1: Saint Alvin

Taysom Hill sat out last week and Alvin Kamara had 12 carries and a score despite a poor yardage output. The veteran also got four red-zone carries compared to Jamaal Williams who had just one. The latter is also dealing with a groin injury and has been limited at practice this week. 

Hill missed Wednesday and Thursday’s practice and if both he and Williams sit, it will be all Kamara’s backfield making his TD at -120 or better a full-unit play. As of Friday afternoon, the best price on the board was +100 at Pinnacle but there are a handful of books in the -120 to -105 range. 

The New Orleans Saints have struggled in the red zone this year but when they bring in DT Khalen Saunders to block, things change and they have been better at short-yardage situations. 

I don’t play many TDs at this price, but Kamara has found the end zone three times over the last two weeks with the second most RZ carries over those two weeks. He could dominate the backfield work with Williams and Hill not at 100 percent. 

Alvin Kamara prop: anytime TD (+100 at Pinnacle)

Prop bet #2: Trey's TD

The Arizona Cardinals were off last week so bettors might not remember the absolute domination that was TE Trey McBride in the rain at Pittsburgh. The emerging TE caught eight of nine for 89 yards and a score. His first TD was ruled no good but Kyler Murray went right back to his favorite target for a good TD the following play.

McBride is averaging 6.8 catches for 73.3 yards over his last six games and with Murray under center, those numbers jump to 7.0 catches, 80.87 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game.

The TE is paying +292 to score and is a number I’d play down to +250. It’s a tough matchup vs. the San Francisco 49ers, but that is priced in here and this TD has a few things working in its favor.

First is the game script. Arizona will likely be passing more than usual on Sunday and that should increase the TE’s targets and RZ looks. 

Next is the setting. It’s always a bonus to play indoors which increases passing volume and efficiency. I’m calling State Farm Stadium an indoor venue. 

Finally are injuries. Michael Wilson and Marquise Brown have both been limited at practice this week. Brown missed the second half of Week 13 while Wilson has been out since Week 10. On the defensive side of things, LB Dre Greenlaw has yet to practice this week as has starting corner Charvarius Ward while starting safety Talanoa Hufanga is on the shelf.

This is an elite price for a pass-catcher who is going to be busy all game and could have a massive day in volume. The Cards aren’t going to score a bunch here, but that’s priced in. McBride will be the focal point of a trailing offense and a garbage-time TD pays just the same as a game-winning one. It’s a full unit. 

Trey McBride prop: anytime TD (+292 at Pinnacle)

Prop bet #3: MVP chasing

Lamar Jackson enters Week 15 as the No.3 betting favorite for the league’s MVP and could add to his case Sunday night in prime time vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars with a rushing TD that’s paying a four-week high +200 at FanDuel.

The AFC-leading Baltimore Ravens sit as 3-point road favorites vs. the Jags but the weather is going to favor the running game which is possibly why there is a decent discrepancy in his TD odds which are as short as +120. 

The QB hasn’t scored a rushing TD in six straight games but is averaging nine rush attempts over that stretch with 11 red-zone rushing attempts. Jacksonville is averaging 0.4 rushing TDs per game to opposing QBs which is one of the higher rates in the league, 

The weather could also favor Jackson’s TD chances. Twenty-one mph winds are expected Sunday night with a very good chance of rain. It could be a game that the Ravens lean even more on the run despite leading the league in run rate. 

It’s hard to pass up this price on Jackson whose skillset suits the possible poor passing conditions. 

Lamar Jackson prop: anytime TD (+200 at FanDuel)