Best NFL Touchdown Props for Week 2: No Stopping Richardson

Prop bet #1: Tony Toni Tone

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson was a popular TD choice last week but his market closed around +130 and got hit hard. He found the endzone in his first game as a pro and with the depth at running back and books back to +200 for another TD, Richardson is a full-unit play in Week 2.

First off, Richardson is being backed by head coach Shane Steichen who gave Jalen Hurts 44 red-zone rushes in 2022 and the Philly QB converted on 25% of them. Last week, Richardson had four rushed inside the 20 including 3 inside the 10 and two inside the five-yard line. He cashed on a five-yard score. In total, he carried the ball 10 times for 40 yards. 

ANTHONY RICHARDSON TAKES IT HIMSELF.

????: #JAXvsIND on FOX
????: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/G4uoYVOqQn pic.twitter.com/2awLV5mL5o

— NFL (@NFL) September 10, 2023

Next is the matchup. Houston is a slight favorite meaning bettors will likely see a neutral game script for the majority of the game. Houston currently has both its starting safeties as DNPs heading into Friday’s practice which is a big advantage for the athletic Richardson. 

Additionally, this running back situation is getting ugly. Jonathan Taylor isn’t in the picture, Deon Jackson fumbled twice last week, Evan Hull is out, and Zack Moss is playing his first game since fracturing his arm. It’s not a great backfield and Richardson and his legs will be involved in the red zone. 

Lastly is the price. BetMGM is hanging a +210 for a TD when last week at this time, the best number was +130 in a more difficult matchup. This is a price I’d play to +150 and one I’d expect to fall well south of +200.

Anthony Richardson prop: Anytime touchdown (+210 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #2: Traveling Rachaad

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host the Chicago Bears in the Florida heat Sunday and after Jordan Love and the Packers put up 38 vs. this Chicago defense, the Bucs could get their chance to score three-plus TDs.

Rachaad White had a big workload last week with 17 carries, and although he didn’t do much with them, the commitment to his role is encouraging. This is an offense under the eye of old-schooler Todd Bowles who said he wants to run the ball more in 2023 after having the worst run rate in 2022.

White also has some receiving chops with 50 grabs a year ago and two in Week 1. Jones destroyed the Bears last week in the passing game.

AARON JONES.

Packers in prime territory. pic.twitter.com/aiqEA2JcIZ

— Arye Pulli (@AryePulli) September 10, 2023

The Bears’ defense is a perfect matchup for White who is paying +155 to score at DraftKings and a number I’d play to +130, maybe even +125. Chicago finished as a Bottom-5 defense last week in EPA/play and got smoked by a QB who finished with a -5.5% CPOE, an injured WR group, and a running back who injured himself taking in a 35-yard score.

The Green Bay running game wasn’t setting the world on fire but they did score on one of its six red-zone carries and went a perfect 3-for-3 inside the 20 with touchdowns. 

White saw all the red-zone carries in Week 1 and should still maintain that role heading into a great matchup vs. a bad defense that could wear down in the Florida heat. It’s not often we get a possible 17-20-carry back at this price. It’s a full unit at +155 for White to find the endzone on Sunday. 

THE BLITZ has this TD as the second-best +EV TD play in this game behind only Baker Mayfield at +550. THE BLITZ is projecting 0.57 TDs while the +155 odds are implying 0.48 for a 19% difference and about 15% EV.  

Rachaad White: Anytime touchdown (+155 at DraftKings) 

Prop bet #3: Jake Ferguson, it’s a funny name

Even with the positive game script and weather, the Dallas Cowboys kept its starters on the field and pressed in the opener. Dalton Schutz may be gone but Jake Ferguson played a decent role in that offense and was a target-hog in the red zone.

The tight end had a team-high seven targets including an NFL Week 1-high five targets in the red zone with three of those coming on the 10-yard line or closer. He was targeted on 50% of his routes ran and played 41 snaps to CeeDee Lamb’s 43.

Betway is paying +375 for a TD for the now No.1 TE and is a number I’d be happy at +300 or better.

The matchup isn’t great vs. a good New York Jets defense, but New York is on a short week, coming off a big division win, and gave up seven catches on eight targets for 51 yards to Buffalo TEs last week. Both the receptions and yards were Bottom-10 marks vs. the position.

It’s an indoor game and Zach Wilson could be giving the ‘Boys some short fields. With a seemingly big role in the red zone and paying +375, Turd Ferguson is getting 0.7 units to win 2.63.  

Jake Ferguson prop: Anytime touchdown (+375 at PointsBet)