Best NFL Touchdown Props for Week 7: Murray Hits Paydirt for Bills

Prop bet #1: Scavenger Hunt

Hunt saw season-highs across the board last week vs. the 49ers and will have plenty of opportunities to score vs. the Colts who sit in the bottom third in touchdowns allowed per game, opponent red-zone TD%, and 31st in rushing TDs allowed per game at 1.5.

Hunt saw 71 yards on 15 touches (13 carries) last week and finished with a 37% snap share to Ford’s 50%. However, the veteran’s role continues to grow, including near the goal line.

Kareem Hunt gets the Browns on the board

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Last week, Hunt saw three carries inside the 20-yard line (two inside the 15) while Ford had zer,o making it just one on the year for the the losing-snaps RB.

The Browns are 3-point road favorites, so game script favors him as well. 

The real value here, as it usually is, is with the +250 Kareem Hunt odds. BetMGM is as short as -105 and this has value up to +170. Hunt returned to practice on Thursday and looks good to go for a good-size workload vs. a porous defense that gives it up in the red zone. It’s a one-unit play.

Kareem Hunt prop: anytime TD (+250 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Murray up

Latavious Murray odds continue to be undervalued in TD markets. He's +265 as of Friday afternoon to score this weekend and a lot of things are checking the box to make this a great play. 

First are his opportunities. Damien Harris has been ruled out for Sunday’s game vs. New England. Last week without Harris stealing touches, Murray had 12 carries for 45 yards whereas starter James Cook finished with just three more carries. Murray was on the field for 28 snaps compared to Cook’s 30 and the former's role in the red zone was significant.

Murray had four red-zone carries last week and was +300 to score. He didn’t punch any in, which is likely why bettors are still getting great odds. Three of those carries were from inside the 5-yard line as the veteran was just one of four RBs to get 3-plus carries inside the 5-yard line last week. 

The Bills are a giant road favorite with windy and possibly rainy conditions which could mean more work for the plus-money back. I’ve bet him two times so far in these columns, hitting once, but Week 7 is the best opportunity he's had and this is a great price that I’d play to +200. It’s a one-unit bet. This is as low as +165 with Pinnacle sitting at +195. 

Latavious Murray prop: anytime TD (+265 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Pitted against

Since Week 2, Falcons tight end Jonnu Smith has been the eighth-most targeted TE in football, has 75 more yards than Kyle Pitts on three fewer targets, and has at least 36 yards receiving in each game. He also hauled in his first score last week and was paying +470 to do so. 

The wait between TDs was worth it for Jonnu Smith 🙌

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This week, on the road vs. the Bucs, Smith can be found as long as +550 at DraftKings to score while Pinnacle sits at +355 and BetMGM is at +230. 

Smith is getting snaps in every situation and caught his TD pass last week on 2nd and goal from the 2. Atlanta has been an average team in terms of TD success in the red zone, but because of the commitment to two-TE sets, Smith is on the field a lot. He has just 10 fewer snaps than Pitts on the year and has outsnapped him 89 to 83 over the last two weeks. 

The price and opportunity are there, at least for another week, as Smith has become one of the more underrated TEs in football through six weeks and I’m betting 0.7 units on Jonnu Smith odds of +550 to find the end zone for a second straight week. 

Jonnu Smith prop: anytime TD (+550 at DraftKings)