Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has put on a clinic in three consecutive postseason games against the Buffalo Bills, and the AFC rivals go at it again at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, January 26.
After a quick peek at the Travis Kelce odds, I think oddsmakers are selling the star tight end short.
Here are my top NFL picks for Kelce and the Chiefs against Buffalo in the AFC Conference Championship Game.
Travis Kelce player prop picks
- Best bet
75+ receiving yards
(-105 at BetMGM) - SGP pick
Travis Kelce 75+ receiving yards
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
(+250 at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Travis Kelce prop pick
My best bet
75+ receiving yards (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I often prefer to just let the numbers do the talking, and in the case of Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, his postseason production speaks quite clearly.
| Year | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Opponent | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8 | 7 | 117 | Texans | Divisional |
| 2024 | 10 | 9 | 93 | 49ers | Super Bowl |
| 2024 | 11 | 11 | 116 | Ravens | AFC Champ. |
| 2024 | 6 | 5 | 75 | Bills | Divisional |
| 2024 | 10 | 7 | 71 | Dolphins | Wild Card |
| 2023 | 17 | 14 | 98 | Eagles | Super Bowl |
| 2023 | 8 | 7 | 78 | Bengals | AFC Champ. |
| 2023 | 6 | 6 | 81 | Jaguars | Divisional |
| 2022 | 7 | 5 | 108 | Bengals | AFC Champ. |
| 2022 | 9 | 8 | 96 | Bills | Divisional |
| 2022 | 11 | 10 | 95 | Steelers | Wild Card |
| 2021 | 15 | 10 | 133 | Buccaneers | Super Bowl |
| 2021 | 15 | 13 | 118 | Bills | AFC Champ. |
| 2021 | 11 | 8 | 109 | Browns | Divisional |
| 2020 | 6 | 6 | 43 | 49ers | Super Bowl |
| 2020 | 4 | 3 | 43 | Titans | AFC Championship |
| 2020 | 12 | 10 | 134 | Texans | Divisional |
Dating back to the Kansas City Chiefs' first Super Bowl title, Kelce has averaged 8.2 receptions for 94.6 yards on 9.8 targets, which includes an absolutely dominant 8.7 receptions for 96.3 yards across three playoff games against the Buffalo Bills.
Even better for Sunday, Buffalo limped down the stretch with the third-highest dropback EPA allowed and highest dropback success rate allowed while surrendering the sixth-highest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks across its final nine regular-season games.
The Bills also allowed Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta to go off for seven receptions and 111 yards on 10 targets in Week 15, and Baltimore Ravens tight ends Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely turned their 12 combined targets into nine receptions for 134 yards last week in the AFC Divisional Round clash.
In between, Buffalo held the New England Patriots tight ends in check twice and faced the Denver Broncos in Wild Card Weekend.
Book Kelce for 75-plus receiving yards Sunday.
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Travis Kelce same-game parlay
Travis Kelce 75+ receiving yards
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
As highlighted, Kelce has seven or more receptions in 12 of his past 17 postseason games, including in three straight. I also value his target share jumping to 25.5% over the final 10 games of the regular season compared to just 20.5% to start the year.
The go-to tight end garnered 32% of quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ looks against the Houston Texans last week, too.
Turning to Mahomes, while I am anticipating the KC defense showing up against the Bills, Buffalo, and quarterback Josh Allen are going to score.
So, with the noted struggles of the Buffalo pass defense, I expect Mahomes to have success attacking through the air.
Additionally, I’m eyeing Mahomes for this leg because Buffalo finished the regular season allowing the fifth-lowest EPA per rush, and Kansas City rushed for just 2.3 yards per tote last week against Houston.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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