Tua Tagovailoa Odds and SNF Props: Tua Torments Pats' Defense

This week, Sunday Night Football features the Miami Dolphins traveling to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots. The Patriots fans know a thing or two about great quarterback play having watched Tom Brady for over a decade but the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa has started the season well and we’ll be focused here on what the best way to bet around Tua is.

The 1-0 Dolphins come into Week 2 red hot following that shootout victory over the Chargers and are three-point favorites over Bill Belichick’s Patriots. The Pats may be 0-1 but they really impressed in Week 1, nearly taking a big win and showing that there might be more life in this team than first assumed. One thing we know is that Belichick will be relishing the opportunity to scheme against this team and to shut down Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa, but can he?

In addition to our favorite NFL picks for the Dolphins vs. Patriots, let's look at the best NFL props for Tagovailoa.

You can also check out our Dolphins vs. Patriots picks and SNF prop picks for more great analysis!

Tua Tagovailoa SNF prop picks

• Tagovailoa Over 21.5 completions
• Tagovailoa Over 21.5 completions/Tagovailoa Over 265.5 passing yds/Hill Over 81.5 rec yds

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Tua Tagovailoa SNF prop pick

Tagovailoa Over 21.5 completions (-115)

When it comes to betting on Tua Tagovailoa odds on SNF, there’s only one place to start and that’s with his arm. Last week against the Chargers, he threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns, with a league-high average of 10.4 yards per pass. I’m expecting another positive week for Tua, although I can’t see him hitting the highs of the opener and I’m more confident in the Patriots defense and their coaching. 

So, we’re going to go with Over 21.5 completions. Firstly, while Raheem Mostert looked solid last week, I’m not suddenly expecting the Dolphins to rely heavily on the run and this game should be very close, which would lean into the game script seeing more passing.

We know the Dolphins love to trust Tua and give him loads of attempts to throw the ball. Last week, he had 45 attempts with 28 being caught. Those numbers would need to drop quite substantially for the line to not be met here.

As mentioned, I’m expecting the Pats D to be more difficult than the Chargers but this Pats D still let Jalen Hurts get 22 completions on 33 attempts. Now, we know that they’d have been far more worried about Hurts’ legs than they are about Tua's, but they still need to respect the Dolphins ground game even if it’s not Plan A.

The line currently sits on 21.5 and I’d even back this at 22.5 should it rise. Although I’d not want to go any further.

Prop: Tua Tagovailoa Over 21.5 passing completions (-115)

Tua Tagovailoa SNF same-game parlay

Tua Tagovailoa Over 21.5 completions

Tagovailoa Over 265.5 passing yards

Tyreek Hill Over 81.5 receiving yards

+275 at bet365

We start with our best bet of Tua getting Over 21.5 passing completions. His arm combined with Miami's elite WR corps are their man threats and the Dolphins should play to their strengths.

I’m also going to be backing Tua to hit the Over on 265.5 passing yards. He had the highest average of yards per throw last week and has a number of pass catchers who are elite after the catch. This offense has real home-run potential and for that reason I see Tua’s 22+ completions going for 266 or more yards fairly easily.

The final bet on our Tua Tagovailoa SGP is the first that directly involves a player other than him. We’ll be backing his best offensive weapon, Tyreek Hill, to have Over 81.5 receiving yards. We all know about Hill by now but he’s the perfect foil for Tua and has thrived since his arrival in South Beach. He’s been outspoken about his desire to have a 2,000-yard season. Hill’s unique skill set makes him hard to scheme against and even the great Bill Belichick will struggle to contain the Cheetah.

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