While Thanksgiving Day has always been known for its classic football games, Black Friday is getting in on the Week 12 odds action. After a trio of games on Thursday, Amazon Prime has the Miami Dolphins as heavy NFL odds favorites against the New York Jets at Metlife Stadium this afternoon.
The Dolphins are 2-2 in their last four games after starting 6-1 — granted, those losses came in Philadelphia and against the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Jets have lost three straight and will be turning to Tim Boyle with the team sitting at 4-6.
So, after you’re done getting your Black Friday deals, settle in to (hopefully) make some of that money back on some free NFL picks. Here are my prop picks for Tua Tagovailoa odds in Dolphins vs. Jets on November 24.
Be sure to also check out our Dolphins vs. Jets predictions, along with our three favorite Dolphins vs. Jets prop bets!
Tua Tagovailoa Week 12 prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Tua Tagovailoa Week 12 prop pick
Over 3.5 rushing yards (-125)
The New York Jets defense has been the only thing keeping them competitive this season. They’ve been able to limit some stiff competition like Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes to just one passing touchdown each.
Tagovailoa also hasn’t been at his best against some of the better defenses he’s played. He’s struggled — well, struggled for Tagovailoa — against the Chiefs, Eagles, and Patriots. All of those games were on the road and he went Under his passing totals. However, it’s always hard to fade a talent like Tagovailoa with the weapons he has.
The MVP candidate isn’t happy with just being 7-3. There are plenty of weeks left in the season and things can change on a dime.
"Well, the job is not done," Tagovailoa said. "There's nothing accomplished to being 7-3."
So instead of fading Tagovailoa, we’re going to take a look at his rushing yards. While he isn’t quite a dual threat, he has what it takes to get a handful of rushing yards, right?
He’s gone Over the 3.5 mark in six of 10 games this season, including in each of the last three contests.
The Miami Dolphins may also be without breakout running back De’Von Achane. He missed four games before re-injuring his knee in the first quarter against the Raiders.
"He was politicking to try to come back in the game," Miami coach Mike McDaniel said, "but I was a little worried ... to go and do that. We kind of held him back."
The Jets should be able to put some pressure on Tagovailoa and force him to scramble and pick up a few yards. They've typically allowed quarterbacks to run some against them. In fact, the Jets have allowed Under 3.5 rushing yards to quarterbacks in just one game this season — two weeks ago against the Raiders.
Prop: Over 3.5 rushing yards (-125 via DraftKings)
Tua Tagovailoa Week 12 same-game parlay
Tua Tagovailoa Over 3.5 rushing yards
Raheem Mostert TD
Tyreek Hill TD
While Tagovailoa may not have his best game against a tough defense, he should be able to at least find his favorite weapon, Tyreek Hill, for a score.
Hill has a touchdown in eight of 10 games this season, including five of his last six contests. He’s a threat to score from anywhere on the field and has also received a decent share of the red-zone targets over the past few weeks.
The slick wideout had two of five red-zone targets last week and four of 10 red-zone targets two weeks prior.
We’re going to include running back Raheem Mostert to find the end zone as well. With Achane still nursing his knee injury, Mostert should be the featured back for Miami.
Mostert had two red-zone rushes last week and has had at least one attempt in the red zone in each game this season. The Dolphins are 10-point favorites so they should theoretically be able to run some of the clock in the second half. Mostert has what it takes to get in the end zone.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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