Vikings vs Bills Week 10 Picks and Predictions: Buffalo Faces a Litmus Test With Allen Possibly Out

The Buffalo Bills will try to rebound from their Week 9 loss to the Jets as they're set to host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.

With Bills quarterback Josh Allen listed as questionable for Sunday, can Minnesota take advantage of a wounded Buffalo team? Or will Allen find a way to start and avoid the team’s second straight loss?

Continue reading our free NFL picks and predictions for Vikings vs. Bills on November 13.

Vikings vs Bills best odds

Vikings vs Bills picks and predictions

Everything in this game revolves around Josh Allen’s right elbow. He injured it last week against the Jets and hasn’t practiced all week. Allen is suffering from an ulnar collateral ligament sprain, but no one except Allen, head coach Sean McDermott, and the Buffalo Bills’ medical staff know how serious the injury is.

If Allen can’t go, then the Bills will turn to Case Keenum to start in his place. The Bills, however, can have success with Keenum in the game. He doesn’t have the arm that Allen has, but his success will come through short and medium passes. His career completion percentage at 10 yards or less is 70%. From 11-20 yards, Keenum comes in at 61%.

The one thing McDermott and the offensive staff will have to do is keep Keenum out of third and long situations. His 66.0 rating on third-down completions since 2017 is one of the worst in the league. Still, I think the game plan should be solid enough to bounce back and get a win over a Minnesota Vikings' defense that ranks 28th in total yards allowed. 

My best bet: Bills -3.5 (+100 at PointsBet)

Vikings vs Bills spread analysis

As expected, the line for this game has dropped dramatically from its opening number of 8.5. Now Buffalo is favored by 3.5, which is good news for those backing the Bills.

With Allen’s status up in the air, there is going to be trepidation about picking Buffalo, but there shouldn’t be. The factor that stands out to me is who the Vikings have played this season. Yes, they are 7-1, and their lone loss was to the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. But of the seven victories, only one (Miami Dolphins) have a winning record.

There are also some intangibles that also work in the favor of Buffalo. The first is if Allen starts, he wants to redeem himself from the previous week’s loss to the Jets. If Keenum gets the nod for the Bills, he will be facing his old team and will have extra motivation to defeat them. The same goes for star receiver Stefon Diggs, who will be facing his former team for the first time since coming to Buffalo.

Diggs and Keenum worked well in Keenum’s lone season in Minnesota, so that chemistry could be rekindled on Sunday. With a low line of -3.5 and Buffalo’s motivation to not lose two consecutive games, I believe the Bills will cover at home.

Vikings vs Bills Over/Under analysis

This is going to be a tough pick because we don’t know if Allen is playing, and if he does, just how effective will he be? The total went from 48.5 to 42.5 and still might be too high.

The Bills are fourth in the NFL in total yards allowed, averaging 299.6 yards per game. The Vikings are 27th in passing yards allowed but fare well against the run, ranking 9th in the league. The Bills have hit the Under in their last six games and are 4-0 to the Under against teams with a winning record.

Another factor is the weather, as the forecast for Sunday in Orchard Park is a high of 30 degrees with rain and snow showers. Both teams could end up being run-dominant if the elements get nasty, which would point towards a low-scoring affair.

Vikings vs Bills betting trend to know

The Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Bills.

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