The Chargers halted a two-game skid with a three-point win over the Eagles last week and will now look to stay atop the AFC West with a win over the Minnesota Vikings at SoFi Stadium Sunday as 3-point favorites.
Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook is eligible to play despite his legal issues which could be bad news for the Chargers’ league-worst run defense. The visitors are also dealing with some serious COVID issues as well. This game has shootout written all over it and has the week’s second-highest total at 53.
Can the Chargers stop the run? Can the Vikings finally pull through and win a close game? Find out in our free picks and predictions for Vikings vs. Chargers on November 14.
Vikings vs Chargers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Chargers were -3 on the look-ahead but opened up at -2.5. That number has moved to -3 with the news of the Vikings' COVID issues. The total opened at 52.5 and has been bet up to 53. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Vikings vs Chargers picks
Picks made on 11/10/2021 at 3:40 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Vikings vs Chargers game info
• Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
• Date: Sunday, November 14, 2021
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Vikings at Chargers betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Vikings: Anthony Barr LB (Out), Michael Pierce DT (Out), Harrison Smith S (Out), Patrick Peterson CB (Out), Danielle Hunter DL (Out).
Chargers: Nasir Adderley S (Out), Mark Webb S (Out), Michael Davis CB (Out), Justin Jackson RB (Out), Ryan Smith CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in the Vikings’ last six road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Chargers.
Vikings vs Chargers predictions
Vikings +3 (-110)
The Vikings are dealing with more than the legal ramifications of Dalvin Cook’s alleged actions. COVID has also swept through the Minnesota locker room as 29 players are currency getting tested for close contact to an unnamed offensive lineman who was admitted to the hospital on Tuesday. Minnesota’s starting center and safety missed last week because of the virus. More players could test positive in the coming days and the market is reacting as the line has moved from LAC -2.5 to -3.
Cook looks like a go for Sunday and is eligible to play despite the legal issues he is facing. The Minnesota run game could have a day versus the Chargers who sit dead-last in success rate against the run and 27th in explosive run plays against. The Chargers’ pass defense could also be undermanned with Ryan Smith hitting the IR. Smith was filling in for Michael Davis who is also questionable Sunday. Minnesota is scoring 30.5 points per game on the road this season and has played extremely competitively over its last five games despite winning just two and covering twice.
Even after being named AFC offensive player of the week, Justin Herbert’s offense has still been league average this year (16th in success rate, 18th in explosive play rate). It sits in the bottom-10 in explosive rush plays and faces the No. 7 weighted DVOA defense that will be looking to rebound after a tough loss to Lamar Jackson last week. The Vikings’ defense sits 10th in success rate (3rd against the pass). Harris Smith could be back this week which would be a big boost to this secondary that sits 3rd in defensive success rate against the pass.
The Minnesota COVID news has naturally got the market jumping on the Chargers, but if the Packers and even the Cardinals have shown us anything it's that the market can overvalue these situations. Minnesota has a great offensive matchup and should be able to go shot-for-shot with the Chargers.
The Vikings were +7.5 at Baltimore last week while the Chargers were +3 there three games ago. In hindsight, that MIN/BLT line should have been closer to +6 which puts this +3 spread on point. The Vikes covered that +7.5 vs. Baltimore and almost won outright while the Chargers had their doors blown off in a 34-6 loss. Getting this at +3 is a big deal as we doubt we’d take the Vikes at +2.5.
Over 53 (-110)
Sunday’s matchup features the second-highest total of the week at 53 after opening at 52.5. The Chargers have hit the Over in three of the last four weeks and have seen a combined average score of 57.75 over that stretch. Herbert and the offense put up 445 yards of offense (6.5 yards per play) against the Eagles last week and have amassed at least 350 yards of total offense in seven of their eight games. Minnesota is a top-10 defensive team by success rate but the Vikings’ defense is also allowing over 30 points per game on the road this year. In fact, the average combined score of a Minnesota road game this year is 61.25 and is a perfect 4-0 O/U.
The Vikings’ run game should have a field day versus the Chargers. L.A. has the worst run defense in football and gives up 162 rushing yards per game. Cook is averaging 92.3 yards per game on the ground and could rip off some big gains against the Chargers who also rank 27th in explosive rushes allowed.
Both secondaries could also be thin as the Chargers could be having to pull up someone from the practice squad to play corner with the injuries to Davis and Smith. Minnesota could be without CB Bashaud Breeland who exited last week’s game. Breeland was playing heavy snaps for the Vikings’ defense before going down.
Both offenses could roll on Sunday and we like this turning into a back-and-forth shootout.
Vikings first quarter ML (+115)
The Vikings have one of the league’s best first-quarter offenses. Minnesota averages 6.4 1Q points per game and 6.8 on the road. The Vikings have scored in the game’s first 15 minutes in each of their last seven games and have put up six or more points in six of those seven. Minnesota is 4-2-2 SU in the first quarter this season.
On the other side, the Chargers are an average defensive team in the first quarter but give up 6.0 points in the first frame at home this year. Minnesota could dominate possession with running against the Chargers’ brutal rush defense and is one play-action bomb away from changing the score.
Playing the first quarter 2-way moneyline means pushing on a tie but with the visitors paying +115 on the ML and -130 at +0.5, we’re taking the ML and wouldn’t be angry about a push.
