The 2024 NFL regular season wraps up on Sunday night with a massive game between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions. The No. 1 seed in the NFC is up for grabs, and we should get a thrilling shootout with the Over/Under, the highest of the season at 56.
With oddsmakers expecting a high-scoring game my NFL picks are backing a trio of Pro Bowl players in Sam Darnold, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Here are my best free Vikings vs. Lions predictions and NFL picks for January 5.
Vikings vs Lions SNF props
Sam Darnold Over 279.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at bet365)- Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (-120 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Vikings vs Lions SNF props
Prop bet #1: Sam Darnold Over 279.5 passing yards
It's been a redemption year for Sam Darnold who was the third pick overall in the 2018 draft and has bounced around the NFL before finding a home with the Minnesota Vikings.
Darnold was just named to his first Pro Bowl and has thrown for 4,153 yards while ranking fourth in the NFL in yards per pass attempt (8.2) and fifth in passer rating (106.4). He's been even better when playing in domes, where he averages 8.6 yards per attempt with a passer rating of 116.0.
The Detroit Lions are fourth in the league in defensive rush success rate but have been vulnerable through the air. They rank 31st in passing yards allowed per game (250.4) and 25th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.0). They've been even worse since losing their best coverage linebacker, Alex Anzalone, and their top cornerback, Carlton Davis, to injuries.
Darnold threw for a career-high 377 yards last week, and he should shred a Detroit secondary that has surrendered more than 320 passing yards in three straight games.
Prop bet #2: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 33.5 receiving yards
Jahmyr Gibbs was already one of the more productive running backs in the NFL and after David Montgomery suffered a season-ending injury in Week 15, his usage has spiked through the roof.
Gibbs has racked up at least four catches and 45 yards in three straight games. He also had four catches for 44 yards when the Lions previously faced Minnesota in Week 7.
With this blitz-happy Vikings defense bringing the heat, Lions QB Jared Goff will be looking for quick outlet passes to players like Gibbs.
Prop bet #3: Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown
Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown was just named to his third-straight Pro Bowl, and he's been a touchdown machine.
St. Brown has caught a touchdown pass in 11 of his last 14 games and he racked up 112 yards and a score when these teams clashed in Week 7. The sure-handed receiver sees an incredible 59.6% target share when Detroit is in the red zone, and his 31 red zone targets are the second-most in the NFL.
The Vikings are 28th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (243.6) while ranking 16th in red-zone defense (56.5%). They've also allowed 18 touchdown catches to opposing wide receivers — the fifth-highest number in the league.
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