Vikings vs Packers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 8: How Low Can You Go at Lambeau?

The Minnesota Vikings head to Lambeau Field in Week 8 for a divisional battle against the Green Bay Packers. The Vikings are coming off a huge win on Monday Night Football against the 49ers and will take on a Packers side that is fresh off a road loss to a bad Broncos team.

NFL odds opened with the Packers as slim 1-point home faves but that line has flipped to favor the Vikes at -1 with the total listed at 43. Here are my best free NFL picks for Vikings vs. Packers on October 29. 

Vikings vs Packers odds

Vikings vs Packers predictions

The Minnesota Vikings are on the road on a short week and are prime for a letdown after an upset victory against the 49ers on Monday. That said, I still have a tough fading them as short faves against a Green Bay Packers team that has one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league in Jordan Love.

Love is 24th in the league in yards per pass attempt (6.5), 32nd in completion percentage (57.5%), and 28th in passer rating (79.4). He also struggles against the blitz and the Vikings send the heat at a whopping 50.8% rate. 

The absence of top-tier receivers and the struggles in the running game are certainly not doing Love any favors, as A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones have managed just 3.5 yards per carry when combined.

With that ineffective group of weapons, the Packers haven't scored more than 20 points in any of their last four games. They are coming off a contest where they mustered just 17 points against the league's worst defense in the Broncos, and before that, they scored just 13 points against another Bottom-5 defense in the Raiders. 

Now Green Bay takes on a Minnesota defense that might be a bit underrated. The Vikings are tied for 12th in the league in yards allowed per play (5.1) and are coming off a contest where they limited San Francisco to 17 points. Although they rank a modest 20th in points allowed per game (21.7), they've already faced four of the six best teams in the NFL in offensive EPA this season. 

That said, this is a sell-high spot for Kirk Cousins and a Vikings offense that picked apart San Fran's normally stingy defense on prime time. Keep in mind that this Minnesota offense is trying to stay afloat without its best player in All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson, who suffered a hamstring injury in Week 5.

Cousins also has a history of struggling outdoors in cold weather and Lambeau Field will be chilly on Sunday with temperatures around 30 degrees and a chance of rain. The Packers have been getting gashed against the run but their pass defense has been solid (13th in dropback EPA and 11th in yards allowed per pass attempt). 

Instead of fading Minnesota, I'll fade both offenses in what could be a messy cold-weather game at Lambeau. 

My best bet: Under 43 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Vikings vs Packers same-game parlay

Under 42.5 (-120)

Kirk Cousins Under 284.5 passing yards (-110)

Alexander Mattison Over 48.5 rushing yards (-110)

+350 at bet365

As mentioned above, this is a sell-high spot for Cousins, who tends to struggle when playing outdoors. That said, we should see a heavier workload for running back Alexander Mattison, who had just 39 yards on eight carries a week ago.

Mattison suffered a blow to the head just before halftime in that contest and didn't get much work after returning to the sidelines. Mattison had back-to-back 90-yard performances earlier in the season and the Vikes should try to get him the ball against a Packers defense that is allowing 143.7 rushing yards per game. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Vikings vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis

On Monday, books had the Packers at -2.5 but following Minnesota's victory against San Fran, that line went down to -1.5. The Vikings have continued to take money and now the Packers are the underdogs at either +1 or +1.5. The total opened at 43, ticked down to 42.5, and then moved back to 43 by Wednesday night. 

The Vikings have won three of their last four games, with their only defeat during that span coming against the Chiefs. Their 22-17 victory on Monday against the 49ers was their most impressive performance of the year as they rolled up 452 yards against a usually stingy Niners stop unit. They also held the San Fran rushing attack to just 65 yards on 22 carries while picking off Brock Purdy twice down the stretch.

The Packers opened their season with a 38-20 win against the Bears but their offense has dried up since. They are 0-3 straight up and against the spread in their last three games, with a lopsided loss at home to the Lions and a pair of road defeats against the Raiders and Broncos. 

While I'm backing the Under in this contest, there are several injuries on Green Bay's defense to keep an eye on. Defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt, cornerback Eric Stokes, and safety Darnell Savage all suffered injuries on Sunday, while linebacker De'Vondre Campbell and Pro Bowl corner Jaire Alexander have been sidelined by nagging injuries as well. 

Vikings vs Packers betting trend to know

The Under has cashed in five straight games for Minnesota. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Packers.

Vikings vs Packers game info

Vikings vs Packers latest injuries

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