The bad news is both the Minnesota Vikings and Houston Texans are 0-3 to start the year. The good news, barring a tie, is that one of them will be picking up their first win of the year when they meet in Week 4 in Texas.
NFL betting odds had the home team Texans open as four-point favorites, but that slipped to -3.5 late on Monday. The total has crept up to 54 after opening at 53.5. Both teams are a combined 4-2 O/U but only Houston has seen a total greater than 50, which was back in Week 1 — a 0.5-point cover on the Over.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Vikings vs. Texans on October 4 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans betting preview
Weather
Temperatures will be in the low-80s at kickoff as NRG Stadium will entertain a light breeze (4 mph) and a zero percent chance of precipitation. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Vikings: Anthony Barr LB (Out), Mike Hughes CB (Out), Troy Dye LB (Out), Kris Boyd CB (Out), Tajae Sharpe WR (Out).
Texans: A.J. Moore S (Out), Keke Coutee WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in the previous game. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Texans.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Vikings came into the 2020 season with one of the NFL's weakest pair of starting corners in Holton Hill and Mike Hughes. After three weeks, Hill ranks 97th out of 102 at the position while Hughes sits 75th. Hughes also missed Week 3 and is questionable for Week 4, and Cameron Dantzler has graded as the team’s best corner (57th) but he missed last week as well and is in danger of missing Sunday’s road game against Deshaun Watson.
The Vikings are giving up nearly 300 yards passing through three weeks and as a defense rank in the Bottom 3 in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed. This is not your usual Mike Zimmer defense and if the defensive-minded coach doesn’t figure it out, the Vikings could be headed for the first-overall pick in next year’s draft.
Houston has started the 2020 season with the most difficult schedule in the league as the Texans have had to play the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers to begin the year. They have also gone 0-3 ATS in those games, but a home game versus the Vikings could be a quick cure.
Houston has yet to get its run game going but Minnesota’s weakness lies in the secondary and we would expect even Bill O’Brien to exploit that advantage. Houston sits 10th in the league in yards per pass but has also played two Top-3 passing defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The Texans schedule has been so difficult that they had +350 odds to start the season 0-4 SU.
Houston could also be getting some defensive help as safety Earl Thomas visited with the Texans earlier in the week and could sign on after starting safety A.J. Moore was placed on the I.R. Moore was ranked as the league’s worst safety, so signing Thomas would be a massive boost for a struggling pass defense. Houston won six of eight games at home last year and won five of those games by three or more points.
We like the Texans to turn things around quicker than the Vikings.
PREDICTION: Houston -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Vikings coach Mike Zimmer may be stuck in his old defensive ways and could be holding this offense back as well. He runs a notoriously-difficult defense to comprehend and with so many new pieces and a league-wide increase in injuries, things aren’t just going to magically get better. This is a bad defensive group that has allowed Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and Ryan Tannehill — average age 35 years old — to score 101 points through three games (33.6 per game).
If Zimmer allows this offense to go pass-first, this could be one of the highest-scoring games of the week. Last week, Minnesota tried to run the ball in the second half with a two-score lead — and ultimately lost 31-30 with 35 second-half points were still scored. With the emergence of rookie WR Justin Jefferson (7/175/1 last week), the Minnesota offense has another weapon which can only help if the Vikes find themselves in catch-up mode.
PREDICTION: Over 54.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Titans’ TE Jonnu Smith caught five balls on eight targets for 68 yards in Week 3 versus the Vikings. That comes one week after Indianapolis TE Mo Alie-Cox went for 111 yards on five grabs. This week it's Houston TE Jordan Akins’ turn to cash in on a soft Minnesota defense. Akins hasn’t stuffed the stat sheet this year but has been consistently involved in the passing game, drawing 11 targets through three weeks.
The Vikings have two of the league’s worst outside linebackers as the injury to veteran Anthony Barr is another big blow to Minnesota’s defense. Akins sees the majority of the passing snaps in the Houston offense and should have a good chance to top his yardage total in a game that has shootout potential.
PREDICTION: Jordan Akins Over 28.5 receiving yards (-118)
Vikings vs Texans betting card
- Houston -3.5 (-110)
- Over 54.5 (-110)
- Jordan Akins Over 28.5 receiving yards (-118)
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