It’s always darkest before dawn, and the Washington Commanders’ 4-13 (6-10-1 ATS) finish to 2023 was pretty damn dark.
Year 2 under new ownership sees cracks of sunlight on the horizon with a three-point restoration for 2024; new GM, new coaches, and new quarterback.
Head coach Dan Quinn injects Washington’s defense with a strong dose of chaos after making Dallas one of the most disruptive defenses in the league. On the other side of the ball, Kliff Kingsbury is tasked with molding another top QB prospect in Jayden Daniels, utilizing the Heisman winner’s dual-threat skill set in his up-tempo attack.
Not all the pieces are in place and this team is very much a work in progress. That’s why we find the Commanders getting points in 14 of their 17 games this season. That said, oddsmakers aren’t discounting those positive changes in the nation’s capital, with Washington drawing 11 spreads within a field goal (-3 to +3).
Here’s my 2024 Washington Commanders NFL betting preview and NFL picks.
Washington Commanders odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +12,000 |
| Win conference | +6,000 |
| Win division | +800 |
| Make playoffs | +260 |
| Over 6.5 wins | -130 |
| Under 6.5 wins | +110 |
Best futures bet: Third in NFC East (+175)
There’s a large gap in talent between the Washington Commanders and divisional big dogs Dallas and Philadelphia, but current NFL odds give the Commanders the nod over New York in the NFC East. On paper, the Commanders offense has a much higher ceiling than the pop-gun attack N.Y. will roll out in 2024.
Both teams have a win total of 6.5 but Washington is priced at Over -115 while the Giants sit at -150 for Under 6.5. The Commanders are also point spread faves in three games (compared to only two for the G-Men) and face a lighter schedule based on both 2023 winning percentage and 2024 win projections.
Washington Commanders at a glance: Wait for D.C. discounts
The Commanders have installed their pillars for long-term success, but it takes time to build the roster around that blueprint. The first six weeks are a tough task, facing many quality foes and playing four of those games on the road. But there will be an opportunity to bet on D.C. and plenty of added points when the sked lets up in mid-October.
What will win bets: Defense
Washington’s defense was anything but dangerous in 2023, finishing with 18 takeaways, 39 sacks, and a league-low pressure percentage. Quinn instantly ups the danger factor for this team, bringing with him his aggressive blitz-heavy packages and overall infectious energy.
The Commanders’ greatest strength is the defensive line, featuring talents like Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen as well as second-round pick Johnny Newton. If Quinn can cook up the same pass pressure that he did in Dallas, it will hurry opposing QBs into bad throws and make this secondary look much better than it actually is.
What will lose bets: Offensive Line
Kingsbury’s downfield playbook won’t be worth the Microsoft Surface its written on if Daniels isn’t given time in the pocket. The Commanders gave up 65 sacks last season and the 2024 pass protection doesn’t look any better.
Based on look-ahead lines, Washington will trail in most games which means a need to pass and score quickly. But if downfield strikes don’t have time to develop, Daniels will be pushing the panic button and either throwing short or running for his life – the latter of which could prove disastrous for a slender rookie QB.
Washington Commanders schedule + spot bet: Soft in the middle
Last year, Washington faced a doozy of a schedule and the team tapped out by November, knowing an offseason overhaul was coming. This year, the new regime sits middle of the pack in SOS but starts 2024 with a baptism by fire.
The Commanders battle playoff contenders like Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Baltimore in the first six weeks, and are on the road in four of those games. Washington was actually a great bet as a visitor in 2023, finishing 6-3 ATS despite a 3-6 SU road record.
Beyond that test comes a softer stretch that should help this new-look organization cook up some consistency. Washington is at home for five of seven games between Week 7 and Week 13 (with a bye in Week 14), with those rare roadies only requiring a short run to East Rutherford and Philadelphia. This opportunistic stretch has the Commanders set between -3 and +2 in five of those outings.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | @ Tampa Bay |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | vs. New York Giants |
| 3 | Monday, September 23 | @ Cincinnati |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | @ Arizona |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | vs. Cleveland |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | @ Baltimore |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | vs. Carolina |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | vs. Chicago |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | @ New York Giants |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | vs. Pittsburgh |
| 11 | Thursday, November 14 | @ Philadelphia |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | vs. Dallas |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | vs. Tennessee |
| 14 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | @ New Orleans |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | vs. Philadelphia |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | vs. Atlanta |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | @ Dallas |
Spot bet: Week 4 @ Arizona (+2.5, 45)
Is “revenge” enough to overcome a gnarly schedule spot in Week 4?
New OC Kliff Kingsbury returns to the desert to face his former team but does so on a short week. The Commanders play in Cincinnati on Monday night in Week 3, leaving little turnaround time for this cross-country trek. To make matters worse, Washington is playing its third road game in the first four weeks, when players are still working their way into proper game shape.
Arizona contrasts that early grind with Week 4 serving as its third straight home game. This spread currently sits just short of a field goal but will likely go +3 or higher based on Washington’s result in Cincy that Monday.
Can Terry stay scary?
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win OPOY | +12,000 |
| To lead NFL in receiving TD | +5,000 |
| To lead NFL in receiving yards | +4,000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 4.5 receiving TD | +100 |
| Under 4.5 receiving TD | -120 |
| 7+ receiving TD | +400 |
| 10+ receiving TD | +1,600 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 900.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| Under 900.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| Over 69.5 receptions | -110 |
| Unver 69.5 receptions | -110 |
| 1,000+ receiving yards | +140 |
| 1,250+ receiving yards | +600 |
Best prop: Under 69.5 Receptions (-110)
Terry McLaurin has quietly been among the steadiest receivers in the NFL the past four years, posting 1,000-plus yards on 77-plus catches in each of those seasons. That accomplishment is as much a testament to his durability as it is his skill set (played 66 games).
McLaurin is undoubtedly the No. 1 option and drew 132 targets from the most pass-happy offense in the NFL in 2023 (threw on 66.13% of snaps), panning out to 79 receptions. For 2024, Washington has put a deeper group of pass catchers around Daniels, including safety blankets RB Austin Ekeler and veteran TE Zach Ertz.
With a rookie QB and a turnstile offensive line, those deeper shots to “Scary Terry” could be few and far between. McLaurin will often be a deep decoy and open up space for safer throws underneath. And with more involvement from fellow WRs Jahan Dotson and Luke McCaffrey, McLaurin's touches will dip.
Washington Commanders trend: Divisional home games
It’s tough to transfer any trend over to the new-look Commanders, considering this franchise has undergone a top-to-bottom renovation. That doesn’t stop us from keeping an eye on things with this 2024 group.
Under former head coach Ron Rivera, Washington’s record against NFC East foes at home matched the garbage stadium it played in. The Commanders were 4-8 SU and 4-7-1 ATS in division home games from 2020 to 2023, including a 0-2-1 ATS mark last year.
This trend isn't reserved to only Rivera either. Going back to 2015, Washington is 9-15 SU and ATS when hosting divisional opponents (37.5%).
Washington Commanders' divisional home games:
- Week 2 vs. N.Y. Giants (-3)
- Week 12 vs. Dallas (+3.5)
- Week 16 vs. Philadelphia (+3)
Not intended for use in MA.
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