Week 1 NFL Parlay Picks: Season Starts with Shootout in Seattle

Week 1 of the 2023-24 NFL season has arrived, bringing with it a sense of optimism (unless you’re an Arizona Cardinals fan). The slate is wiped clean for all 32 teams, as well as NFL odds bettors looking to make this campaign an unforgettable one.

I’ll try to get the year started off on the right foot by parlaying my two favorite spread plays for Sunday. Then I’ll give out my best same-game parlay play for a late afternoon affair.

Be sure to check out all our NFL picks and predictions for Week 1.

Week 1 NFL parlay picks

• Bengals -2.5 + Titans +3 = +273
• LAR/SEA o46.5 + Walker 80+ rush yds + Metcalf anytime TD = +650

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Week 1 Parlay

Bengals -2.5

Titans +3

+273 at FanDuel

Bengals -2.5

The Cincinnati Bengals played like a team possessed following an out-of-nowhere loss to the Cleveland Browns last Halloween. They closed the regular season on a eight-game winning streak (not counting the canceled game with the Bills due to the Damar Hamlin situation) and rolled through the Ravens and Bills in the postseason before suffering a narrow defeat to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

During that 10-game win streak, Cincinnati avenged their earlier defeat in the "Battle of Ohio," beating Cleveland 23-10 in Week 14. I believe Joe Burrow & Co. can replicate that winning formula on Sunday.

The Bengals held Browns running back Nick Chubb to 34 yards on 14 carries in their most recent meeting, and that doesn't seem like a fluke when you consider this unit was seventh in rushing yards allowed per game in 2022 (106.6). Cincinnati brings most of their key cogs back on defense this year, so it looks like Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson will have to shoulder a heavy burden this week.

Watson did not look like the same player that electrified the league early in his career last year. He averaged a modest 183.7 yards per game in six starts in 2022-23 and completed only 58.2% of his throws. His touchdown-interception ratio of 7-5 hardly justified the five-year, $230 million contract he signed with the Browns. 

I can't see how Cleveland will keep up when Burrow is torturing the Cleveland pass stoppers. I think the Browns' fifth-place ranking in pass yards allowed per game last year was dressed up thanks to some soft QB matchups down the stretch, as they encountered Carson Wentz, Andy Dalton, Tyler Huntley, and Kyle Allen in four of their final six contests before missing the playoffs.

Cincinnati has the makings of a Super Bowl contender, while the Browns could finish under .500 if things don't break well for them. Divisional matchups are always tricky, but giving less than a field goal with the Bengals seems more than reasonable.

Titans +3

I believe the Titans are being sold short going into this season, while the Saints are a tad overrated. I'll gladly grab the three points with Tennessee to silence the Superdome faithful on Sunday.

The Titans were decimated by injuries last season, which contributed to their seven-game losing run to close out the campaign. Ryan Tannehill sat out the last three games, and missed two additional tilts earlier on in 2022, which Tennessee split 1-1. 

Tannehill gets a much-needed talent boost out wide in the form of DeAndre Hopkins, but everyone knows that Derrick Henry is the engine that makes this Titans offense go. He gets to attack a New Orleans defense that was ranked 24th in rushing yards allowed per game in 2022. Yes, the Saints made wholesale changes to this unit in the offseason, but I don't think they've improved all that drastically, and they'll need time to gel anyway.

The Tennessee defense was just the opposite against the run in 2022, limiting opponents to an NFL-best 76.9 yards per game on the ground. This will put the ball in the court of new Saints signal caller Derek Carr (especially with Alvin Kamara suspended), and considering how poorly last year went for him, that seems like a recipe for disaster.

The Titans have been a great bet as an underdog since Mike Vrabel took over, especially when getting three or more points. They sport a 22-9-1 ATS record in this situation.

Best Week 1 SGP

LAR/SEA o46.5

Walker 80+ rush yds

Metcalf anytime TD

+650 at DraftKings

This lucrative same-game parlay play starts with my best total bet for Week 1, which is the Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks game to exceed 46.5 points. I believe Seattle will carry the majority of the scoring burden, and that will be reflected in the latter two legs of my parlay play.

The Rams were a mess on defense last year, ranking 19th in yards allowed per game (341.1) and 22nd in points allowed per game (22.6). This unit figures to regress in 2023 following the departures of Jalen Ramsey, Bobby Wagner, and Taylor Rapp.

Even with those three in the lineup, Kenneth Walker III ran roughshod in their Week 18 meeting, gathering 114 yards on 29 carries. He should have gone for far more than 36 yards on three attempts in their first meeting of 2022, but an injury suffered in the first half of that contest stopped the Michigan State product in his tracks. 

Walker topped 100 yards in each of his last three regular season contests, and crossed the 80-yard plateau in seven of his final 11 regular season games of 2022, not counting that Week 13 affair with L.A. where he was hurt.

DK Metcalf should be able to bully a Rams secondary that is sorely lacking in experience. Their starting cornerbacks have a combined seven NFL starts, while their safeties are Jordan Fuller — who is working his way back from a hamstring injury that limited him to three games in 2022 — and Russ Yeast, who has started just once.

For multiple reasons, Geno Smith — who was eighth in deep ball attempts last year — should be unafraid to air it out. The Rams were 26th in yards allowed per attempt last season (7.4), and bettors should expect more of the same in 2023.

Metcalf was second in red zone targets in 2022, so there are multiple avenues in which he could get his touchdown on Sunday.

The Seahawks defense is not immune from criticism, even though they've made multiple improvements in the offseason while Jamal Adams' return is on the horizon (listed as "out" for Week 1). This unit was tied with the Rams in yards allowed per play last year (5.5), and was a full point worse than L.A. in points allowed per game (23.6 vs. 22.6).

I'm not reading much into Matt Stafford's lost 2022 season, where he battled multiple injuries before being shut down in November. Even if he's 90% the passer he was in 2021 (4,886 yards, 41 touchdowns, 102.9 passer rating), Seattle will have a hard time keeping the Rams out of the end zone entirely.

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