Moving spreads through multiple key numbers is the name of the game with teasers, and I’ve identified a handful of teams to target for Week 1. The Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills land in favorable home matchups and headline our teaser NFL picks this week.
NFL Week 1 teaser picks
6-point teaser
- Bengals (-2)
- Bills (-0.5)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Week 1 Teaser
Bengals (-8 to -2) vs. Patriots
Expect teaser bettors to be champing at the bit to back the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1. Cincy was trading as steep as a -9.5 favorite last week, so now the number can be moved through multiple key numbers and all the way down under a field-goal margin. With Cincinnati set for a rebound on the defensive side of the ball and quarterback Joe Burrow healthy, there are oodles to like about the Bengals in a soft matchup at Paycor Stadium on Sunday.
It’s been a total overhaul for the New England Patriots, after all, and starting journeyman QB Jacoby Brissett behind a bottom-tier offensive line shouldn’t instill confidence in first-year head coach Jerod Mayo pulling off the road upset in Week 1.
Cincinnati is the largest favorite on the docket, and we could also see this number climb above a two-possession spread again before kick-off. The time is now to take advantage of this favorable bet365 offering.
Bills (-6.5 to -0.5) vs. Cardinals
I have zero confidence in the Arizona Cardinals going to Highmark Stadium and winning in Week 1. The Buffalo Bills are 14-3 while averaging 28.6 points per game at home the past two years, and the Cardinals head north with a suspect defense that ranked last in defensive DVOA in 2023. At best, Arizona marginally beefed up its stop unit, but even the most favorable prognostications are calling for another tough year for the Cards' defense.
Buffalo is better in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and I’m expecting quarterback Josh Allen and offensive coordinator Joe Brady to be a matchup nightmare in the opener with an entire offseason of preparation. The Bills averaged 27.1 points per game after Brady took over play-calling duties in Week 11 last season, including their two postseason tilts.
Of course, and most importantly, buying this spread below a touchdown turns this teaser leg into a moneyline bet on the Bills. Buffalo is trading at -300 through bet365 on the moneyline, which carries an implied winning probability of 75%.
Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.
Best Week 1 teaser spots
- Bengals (-8 to -2)
- Bills (-6.5 to -0.5)
- Cowboys at Browns (+2.5 to +8.5)
- Packers at Eagles (+2 to +8)
- Ravens at Chiefs (+2.5 to +8.5)
Each of these three additional teaser options moves the spread across multiple key numbers, and we’re targeting three 2023 postseason teams with experienced head coaches and stability at quarterback. Additionally, each of the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and Baltimore Ravens finished top 10 in points differential and ATS records last season.
The Cleveland Browns and Philadelphia Eagles enter the season with question marks, too. Cleveland starting QB Deshaun Watson has only played 12 games the past two years with an uninspiring 59.8 completion percentage and 6.5 yards per passing attempt, and Philly went 1-6 to finish the 2023 campaign, including a wild-card loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Nitpicking the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs isn’t an easy task, but neither is poking holes in the Ravens roster. The two teams have played to a one-possession result in their past two meetings, with KC winning 17-10 in the AFC Conference Championship last year, and Baltimore winning 36-35 in Week 2 in 2021. Expect it to be close again in Thursday's season opener.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
