Week 1 NFL Touchdown Props: Ty'Son Time

The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable weekly NFL props in the betting world. With lines starting as low as -200 and heading north of +800, it’s a market that covers the appetites of every NFL bettor.

We’re going to throw down three to four units each week as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL touchdown props and dig into the matchups that surround them.

NFL Week 1 touchdown props

Damien Harris anytime touchdown (+105)

We’ve already gushed about the New England running back to hit paydirt this Sunday over in our prop article but are so enamored with the third-year running back that we need to keep pushing the narrative.

Damien Harris may be the biggest benefactor to Cam Newton’s departure in New England. Newton rushed for 12 TDs last year, which was tied for the fourth-most in the league, and all 12 came from inside the 20-yard line. Newton really dominated deep in the red zone, where he handled 52 percent of New England’s rushes inside the 10 and an absurd 73 percent of the carries inside the five-yard line. 

With Mac Jones staying in the pocket, Sony Michel getting shipped to the Rams and RB2 Rhamondre Stevenson dislocating his thumb, Harris is looking like the recipient of a major role ahead of his Week 1 battle with the Dolphins. 

Harris isn’t just a benefactor of a string of fortunate events, the former Alabama running back averaged nearly 70 yards on the ground per game last year and ran to a 5.0 YPC. He averaged 4.3 YPC in the preseason and scored from the five-yard line in the Pats’ second preseason contest. At 5-foot-11 and 212 pounds, he’s bigger than fellow RB J.J. Taylor and should get the bulk of the goal-line work, making a +105 anytime TD quite tasty.

Ty’son Williams anytime touchdown (+290)

The Ravens’ running back depth was decimated with season-ending injuries to Justice Hill and J.K. Dobbins but Thursday’s news about an ACL injury to Gus Edwards has turned the Ravens’ offense upside down. Ty’son Williams will be penciled into the starting role versus the Raiders on Monday night and is giving us a great number (+290 at PointsBet) with a great opportunity.

Thinking that the Ravens will just abandon the run because of the injuries is not advised. Baltimore was the heaviest run team in the league last year, averaging over 36 rushes per game. Lamar Jackson isn’t going to run more early in the season and there is an argument to be made that John Harbaugh will want to protect Jackson even more and play conservatively out of the gates with new RBs in pass protection.

Le’Veon Bell and Latavius Murray may also suit up Monday, but they were just signed and won’t be up to speed, leaving the undrafted rookie Williams to be in line for a good amount of work. Williams rushed 28 times in the preseason for 130 yards and a score. 

Jackson wasn’t even that much of a vulture in the RZ as the swift-footed signal-caller had a total of 29 percent of Baltimore’s rushes inside the 10 and surprisingly only five percent inside the five.

Although you will get no complaints from us in taking Jackson to score a TD at -105, we’re seeing too much value in Williams at +290 and throwing down one unit. The Ravens should see plenty of positive game script against a Raiders’ team that allowed 1.5 rushing TDs per game a year ago, which was the second-most in the league. 

If you were proactive with the Edwards injury news, you could have had the stale Williams TD line for +1,800.

Hayden Hurst anytime touchdown (+309)

Arthur Smith has made his way to Atlanta, where he has built one of the most exciting tight end groups in football. The Falcons drafted TE Kyle Pitts with the No. 4 pick this year but also have a 2018 first round pick, Hayden Hurst, on the depth chart. 

Looking at second-string tight ends might not excite many TD hunters, but Smith has said that he will line Pitts up all over the field, leaving Hurts to soak up any TE reps if the rookie moves out wide. Another massive pathway to playing time for the “backup” is that Smith uses two tight end sets at a high rate (fourth-most last year) and it’s been reported that the Falcons will pass more than the 2020 Titans, for whom Smith called plays. 

Hurst will be in his second year with the Falcons and hauled in eight TDs from Matt Ryan last year. Although we doubt he sees another 88 targets this season, his familiarity with Ryan and path to snaps makes him a great mid-to-long-range TD target at (+309). 

With the Philly defense keying on Calvin Ridley and Pitts, Hurst may draw some weak coverage against a terrible passing defense and is worth a less-than-one-unit play to score. 

Brandin Cooks anytime touchdown (+210)

We are well aware that not many will be tuning into the Jags/Texans game on Sunday. However, just because it features two of the league's worst clubs doesn’t mean there isn’t a possible profit to be had. There is nothing sexy about a Tyrod Taylor-led offense but facing a Jacksonville defense that finished with the 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense a year ago and now listening to a college coach, there are a few angles that have us liking this Houston offense Sunday.

The Jaguars allowed 2.1 passing TDs per game a year ago and although Taylor doesn’t push the needle, he still brings plenty of NFL experience. He may also be playing from behind early and only has one real target in the passing game in WR Brandin Cooks.  

The No. 1 wideout could also be motivated to showcase his skills and hopefully get a one-way ticket out of Houston. The No. 2 WR in Houston is third-round rookie Nico Collins who may also be worth a sprinkle as a true longshot but at its current price of +333, we’re passing there.

Getting a clear-cut No. 1 wideout in a likely negative-scripted game at +210 is a decent price in Week 1. It’s a 0.5 unit play for us at this price and this risk. It is priced as low as +137 at other books.

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