Understanding the impact of weather on NFL outcomes is Football Betting 101. Yet, many handicappers forget to look to the skies before placing their NFL picks each week.
Rain, wind, sun, and snow will rear their ugly heads throughout the 2024 NFL season, each carrying its own unique influence. Luckily for us, Week 1 usually catches a break from Mother Nature.
Of the 16 matchups on the board, only two games are currently drawing a forecast that could alter the outcomes as well as the NFL Week 1 odds.
And like I’ll be doing each week of the season, I break down this week's weather and the angles bettors should keep in mind before kickoff. Here’s the NFL Weather report for Week 1.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins Weather
It’s hurricane season in the Sunshine State, which means perpetual "swamp ass" for anyone heading to this all-Florida affair in Week 1.
The extended forecast for this Sunday's 1 p.m. ET kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium is 88 degrees, but that’s before factoring in the soup-like humidity in South Florida. With the humidex flirting with 70%, those game-time temps will feel more like 108 degrees.
As is often the case with Florida forecasts like this, the potential for sudden thunderstorms is high. Bettors should be prepared for rain and a potential stoppage in play should lightning roll into Miami in the second half. Wet weather can lead to slick surfaces and slippery balls, which means dropped passes and potential fumbles.
What's more, this crockpot climate can quickly sap a team’s energy, especially in Week 1, when players are still working their way into "game shape." This gives an advantage to offenses that can pick up the pace and put defenses on their heels, specifically going no-huddle and not allowing foes to sub.
In this case, neither the Miami Dolphins nor Jacksonville Jaguars play a particularly uptempo style but if one playbook could benefit from the heat, I guess it would be the Jags. Offensive coordinator Press Taylor ran no-huddle at the 23rd-highest rate in 2023 but finished sixth in plays per game.
Miami, on the other hand, relies on pre-snap motion to keep defenses guessing, which ticks the clock down. Mike McDaniel’s schemes finished third-last in no-huddle rate and the Fins were 23rd in plays per game in 2023. Miami’s defense is also running a little thin and has notable players returning from injury. That could be a problem if the stop unit starts wearing thin.
The sweltering heat really comes into play in the second half, so mind those derivative spreads and totals. Guys will start to wear down in the final 30 minutes and the Over/Under on injury stoppages due to leg cramps is at 9.5 (should it actually exist). Whoever controls pace and clock in the first half will have a strong edge in the final two frames.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Weather
Much like Miami, the weather in Tampa will be somewhere between "Patrick Ewing’s gym sock" and "the back kitchen of an Outback Steak House" when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers welcome the Washington Commanders for a 4:25 p.m. ET start at Raymond James Stadium.
The extended forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-80s before pumping that up to 108 degrees with the humidity expected to hit 80-plus percent. Cannon fire from the pirate ship isn’t the only boom bettors will hear, as the threat of thunderstorms looms large, especially in the second half.
Again, bettors will want to look at which teams can turn up the tempo and suck all the energy out of the defense. Both the Bucs and Commanders are under new systems in 2024, with Liam Coen calling plays for Tampa Bay and Kliff Kingsbury running the Washington offense.
Kingsbury’s aggressive approach made the Arizona Cardinals one of the more uptempo teams during his tenure in the desert and all signs from training camp are calling for the Commies to play with pace, including more no-huddle with dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels under center. This is absolutely an edge for Washington in this heat and humidity.
Coen is cut from the Sean McVay cloth in Los Angeles, which runs a moderate pace in terms of plays per game but can get especially fast and pass-heavy when trailing. While talk out of training camp calls for more pre-snap motion, Baker Mayfield will have the option to call and adjust plays at the line, which can help pick up the pace.
The Tampa Bay defense is dinged up heading into Week 1, namely the second-stringers. If the heat gets the best of the Buccaneers, that lack of depth could be exposed by Washington’s high-octane offense.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
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