There were more than a few NFL games decided by key numbers this past Sunday, proving the importance of placing your bets on and around those most common margins.
We help you plan out your Week 10 wagers, analyzing the opening NFL odds and monitoring the early moves so that you can find the best of the number — whether that means betting right now or betting them later.
Week 10 bet now, bet later picks
- Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Green Bay Packers: Bet Now
- Minnesota Vikings (+7.5) at Buffalo Bills: Bet Later
- Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (Over 47.5): Bet Now
- Houston Texans at New York Giants (Under 38.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Green Bay Packers: Bet Now
If five straight losses weren’t enough to make you lactose intolerant when it comes to betting the Cheeseheads, consider the laundry list of injuries stacking up for Green Bay.
Running back Aaron Jones was in a walking boot following the loss to the Lions in Week 9, WR Romeo Doubs also sported a boot and crutches, and so did CB Eric Stokes. Add that to QB Aaron Rodgers walking with a limp and playing through a lingering thumb injury and this spread will likely spike as the market fades the faltering Packers.
Dallas is coming off a bye week and presents a much tougher task than Detroit, especially on defense. The Cowboys' stop unit thrives on chaos and is tied for seventh in takeaways with 13 — seven coming on interceptions. Rodgers just threw three INTs in Week 9 and now has seven on the season.
If you can’t back the Pack, bet the Cowboys as low as you can now.
Minnesota Vikings (+7.5) at Buffalo Bills: Bet Later
The look-ahead for this non-conference clash was Bills -9.5 before the Vikings edged out Washington in DC and the Bills face-planted against the Jets in Week 9. This line officially opened as Buffalo -7.5 on Sunday night.
Minnesota is the hottest team in the league, riding a six-game winning streak into Week 10, but beg pardon if the market isn’t blown away by that run. The Vikings are 2-3-1 against the spread in that stretch and have won those six games by an average of just 5.5 points. I suspect this spread will climb and climb quickly.
Buffalo has failed to cover in two straight games and is 2-3-1 ATS in its last six as bookies puff up the Bills’ weekly spreads to battle the public play. If your money is on Minny, push the pause button and wait for more points in Week 10.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (Over 47.5): Bet Now
The Dolphins look like an automatic Over with this Mike McDaniel offense cooking and the defense continuing to give up plenty of points.
The Over in Miami-Chicago was our “Bet Now” total last week — with that game posting 67 combined points — and we’re pulling the trigger early again on this Over versus Cleveland.
The Browns and Dolphins are cut from a similar cloth, ranked out Top 10 in EPA per play on offense while sitting in the bottom third of the league in EPA allowed. Cleveland is coming off a bye week after a huge Monday night win over Cincinnati in Week 8, in which it scored 32 points.
Miami’s offensive maturation was behind schedule due to Tua Tagovailoa’s injury in Week 4 but has exploded the past two weeks with 31 and 35 points against bad defenses in Detroit and Chicago. The Fins come back home to face another sloppy stop unit in Week 10.
Houston Texans at New York Giants (Under 38.5): Bet Later
This total has actually been live at some books since Friday, given that New York was on a bye and Houston played on Thursday in Week 9. The look-ahead was 38, which re-opened at 38.5 and some online shops are now dealing 39 points for the Over/Under in this non-conference clash.
The Texans defense is pretty putrid and allowed 29 points to the Eagles last Thursday, though the Giants' attack is a far cry from Philly. New York runs one of the most methodical paces in the NFL, in terms of seconds per play, and is Bottom 10 in terms of points per play as well.
Houston’s pace isn’t that much faster, and the offense is far less efficient. The Texans have put up more than 20 points only once in 2022 and now hit the road to East Rutherford, where the G-Men have played solid defense this season. New York is allowing less than 18 points per contest inside MetLife Stadium this year.
Watch the opening total closely. If your book opens at 38.5, wait and see if it ticks up before betting on the Under. If you’re into that sort of thing.
