Football bettors suddenly find themselves facing plenty of new factors to consider as we dive into the NFL Week 11 odds.
The bitter cold and winds of November are here, as are the questionable motivations of teams that find themselves behind the pack in terms of the playoff race. And then there’s the usual “bag of cats” handicappers have to deal with on a weekly basis.
But no matter what the NFL season throws at you, getting the best of the number to support your bets is going to keep you in the fight. I help you do just that by sizing up the opening odds and early action while highlighting some spreads and totals to bet now and some lines you may want to bet later.
Week 11 bet now, bet later picks
- Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+2): Bet Now
- Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-4): Bet Later
- Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (Under 41): Bet Now
- Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (Under 44.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+2): Bet Now
Perception-wise, these teams couldn’t be headed in more opposite directions.
The Vikings just became made men by going into Orchard Park and upsetting the Mafia as touchdown underdogs, extending their winning streak to seven games.
The Cowboys barfed up a 14-point buffer to the left-for-dead Packers in Lambeau, eventually losing in overtime, and now hit the road for the second straight week before playing on Thanksgiving in Week 12. Dallas’ defense has had two crap showings after ranking out among the best units in the business to start the season.
The Cowboys showed cracks against the Lions in Week 7, but turnovers and goal-line blunders from Detroit helped cover those blemishes. Dallas has since given up a total of 60 points and now faces a Minnesota offense that went tit-for-tat with the Bills’ well-oiled machine.
This spread is already starting to slim to Vikes +1.5 at some online markets, and could quickly jump the fence considering the contrast in opinion on these teams coming out of Week 10.
Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-4): Bet Later
Sharp bettors loved the Giants to start the season but have been fading New York in recent weeks, including Week 10 when we saw a “Joes vs. Pros” split for the G-Men’s matchup with Houston. We are starting to see the opening line for Week 11 move away from the Giants, as well.
New York opened -4 hosting the Lions and early play on Detroit knocked this one down to as low as -3.5 at some books Sunday night. The Lions do bring momentum into this meeting, having won two in a row after stunning Green Bay and Chicago the past two weeks.
The validity of the Giants’ 7-2 mark is up for debate, as the team has enjoyed one of the easiest opening schedules in the land. However, N.Y. continues to rank out among the most efficient offenses — No. 8 in EPA per play — and if you aren't ready to pull the ripcord on the red-hot Giants just yet, wait and see if this line continues to slim before coming back on Big Blue.
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (Under 41): Bet Now
Players already found it tough to get up for the mid-week Thursday games on short rest. Throw some sub-zero temperatures and two hard-hitting ground games into the mix, and no one will enjoy themselves when the Titans visit the Packers on Thursday Night Football.
Tennessee travels to Lambeau Field with the extended forecast calling for 20-plus mph winds and “feels like” temperatures around seven degrees. That could have the Titans, who already hand off on 56% of snaps, leaning even heavier into RB Derrick Henry.
Green Bay could do the same. The Cheeseheads have been at their best when the rushing combo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon gets rolling, and a strong wind could force the Green Bay attack to keep everything short and safe.
On top of that makeup and chilly temps, these two offenses rank out among the most plodding in the NFL, sitting in the bottom third of the league in plays per game. The Titans sit slowest in tempo, according to Football Outsiders’ seconds per play metric, while the Packers come in fourth slowest in the league.
Once the media catches wind of the bad weather for the “Frozen Tundra," they’ll sell that cold climate in Green Bay and it will shrink this total even more. If you like the Under on Thursday night, bet it now.
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (Under 44.5): Bet Later
The Ravens are coming off a much-needed bye week, given how badly this team has been bitten by injuries in the opening two months of the season. Baltimore should return top skill players like TE Mark Andrews and RB Gus Edwards, which should give this total a nudge up as their statuses become clear.
But the bye is also beneficial for Michael Macdonald’s defense, which has looked better in recent weeks. Baltimore ranked 25th in EPA allowed per play in the opening four weeks of 2022 but has improved to 17th since Week 5. The extra week to prep has also allotted time to work LB Roquan Smith into the mix and rookie pass rusher David Ojabo is expected to debut after being selected in the second round out of Michigan.
Carolina is coming off a messy win over Atlanta last Thursday — a team the Panthers have scored a combined 59 points against this season despite their many offensive issues. They put up 25 points and dominated the ground game last week, but the Ravens are a much steeper climb on defense than the floundering Falcons.
This total has climbed from 43.5 points to 44.5 on Sunday night. If you aren’t buying into a high-scoring finish and you believe in Baltimore’s defense taking the next step, wait it out and see if this goes to 45 before coming back on the Under later.
