We’re deep into the 2024 NFL schedule with Week 11 odds on the board.
The NFL is the most efficient market in sports betting, which means getting the best of the number is vital to your week-to-week wagering success.
Every Sunday night, I measure up the opening NFL odds the minute they hit the board, taking the temperature of public perception while forecasting the pending market moves to find the best spreads and totals to bet now… and circle some odds you may want to bet later in the week.
Here are my favorite “Bet Now, Bet Later” NFL picks for Week 11.
Week 11 bet now, bet later picks
- Packers (-6.5) at Bears: Bet Now
- Chiefs (+1.5) at Bills: Bet Later
- Bengals at Chargers (Over 45): Bet Now
- Commanders at Eagles (Under 49.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at Chicago Bears: Bet Now
This spread was sitting as low as Green Bay Packers -5.5 around 7 p.m. ET on Sunday evening, with one other book at -6. Once other shops opened, we saw those shorter spreads swell to an industry consensus of -6.5.
Green Bay is coming off a much-needed bye week, giving standout QB Jordan Love a couple of weeks to recover after battling injuries in the first half of the schedule. The Packers are coming off a loss to Detroit but had won four straight ahead of Week 9 and face a Chicago Bears team in crisis.
Chicago’s locker room rumblings boiled over to the field in Week 10, losing 19-3 to the New England Patriots as a 6-point home favorite. Head coach Matt Eberflus has lost control of this team and it wouldn’t shock me if he was fired before this NFC North rivalry.
On top of those pressing issues, the Bears have injuries stacking up on the offensive line as well as the defense, which used to be the team’s strength. However, Chicago just gave up 328 yards to a New England offense ranked among the worst in the NFL.
Grab the Packers -6.5 with this line likely trending toward a touchdown, especially if the axe falls on Eberflus in the coming days.
Best odds to bet Packers -6.5 right now
Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) at Buffalo Bills: Bet Later
The Kansas City Chiefs were a Leo Chenal hand away from suffering their first loss of the season in Week 10, but his blocked field goal against Denver salvaged the day and set up a huge matchup with the Buffalo Bills in Week 11.
Buffalo looked much stronger in its convincing road win at Indianapolis, especially on defense. The Bills stop unit was very disruptive, generating four takeaways and sacking veteran QB Joe Flacco four times in the 30-20 victory.
That public perception has Buffalo opening as short as -1 and running up to -1.5 in the minutes after Week 11 odds hit the board. We’re even seeing some expensive Bills -1.5 (-115), which could indicate a jump to -2 if money keeps coming on the Mafia.
In between those big defensive plays for the Bills, they allowed 361 yards, 19 first downs, and 5.9 yards per play to the Colts. That comes on the heels of 373 yards and 27 points allowed to the Dolphins in Week 9.
Kansas City’s defense is a step up in competition for Buffalo compared to recent foes, and Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the monster under Josh Allen’s bed. If you like Kansas City as a dog — and a lot of people will — let’s see if we can squeeze an extra point out of this spread later in the week.
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (Over 45): Bet Now
The Cincinnati Bengals head to L.A. off a mini-bye following their wild shootout with Baltimore last Thursday. Cincinnati is as explosive as they come, and quarterback Joe Burrow will be the toughest test for this Los Angeles Chargers defense all season (yes, that includes Patrick Mahomes).
The Bolts defense is very solid, but this is a major step up in competition after taking on the likes of Will Levis, Jameis Winston, and Spencer Rattler during the team’s three-game winning streak.
Let’s not sell the Chargers offense short, though. Justin Herbert is healthy and has this attack rolling, putting up scores of 26, 27, and 27 in those three contests. Los Angeles is 8-for-11 inside the red zone in those outings and just got a slew of skill players back from injury. This offense has flipped the script from going run-heavy in the opening weeks to pass-happy since October.
The Bengals defense is straight dookie, sitting bottom 10 in most advanced metrics. Cincinnati has allowed a combined 96 points over the past three games, giving up 0.545 points per play in that span. Unsurprisingly, the Over has hit in each of those showings.
Get the Over as low as it shows on Sunday night.
Best odds to bet Over 45 right now
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (Under 49.5): Bet Later
The betting market is always timid to touch the Over on Thursday Night Football, knowing the short week can short-circuit offense. But we just watched the Bengals and Ravens light up the scoreboard on TNF in Week 10 and these NFC East rivals put up 27 and 34 points, respectively, on Sunday.
I’m interested to see if this total ticks upward later this week. The Philadelphia Eagles have scored 127 points in the past four games while the Washington Commanders' blend of high-powered offense and piss-poor defense produces Over winners. At 49.5 O/U, it’s just below the undervalued key of 50 points and if this total climbs to another notable number of 51 O/U, I’m buying back the Under.
Did Pittsburgh lay the blueprint for slowing down Washington? We did see Jayden Daniels and the Commies' offense come back to earth on Sunday, with Pittsburgh limiting Washington to just 242 total yards and a 5-for-14 day on first downs. The Commanders probably should have only scored 20 points, but a bumbled fake punt gift-wrapped a touchdown for Washington in the first half.
As for the Eagles, they beat up on the broken Cowboys and dominated possession for 34 minutes. Philly ran the ball 38 times for 187 yards and could employ the same approach against the Commanders, taking the air out of the ball against a run defense ranked in the basement of the league.
Not intended for use in MA.
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