Ladies and Gentlemen, it’s teaser time, and I’ve got a hole to dig out of!
The Buffalo Bills were a comedy of errors on Monday Night and invented a new way to defy the NFL odds when they turned it over four times against the Broncos, coughing up the game despite winning the yards per play battle 7.1 to 4.2. As a result, Week 10’s teaser was a big fat L. The loss was a true stinger, but that’s betting and I’m sure I’ll be on the right side of a few games like this by season’s end.
So, we’re at 4-6 on the season and there won’t be a dramatic overhaul to my approach, because I trust my process. The Week 11 odds board isn’t exactly making things easy on us, as there aren't many of the classic “no-brainer” teaser NFL picks, but maybe that’s a good thing because those are the games that I’m getting stung by.
Let’s hope a little bit of luck is on my side with my NFL Week 11 predictions, and those turnovers go in my direction. Let’s get hot!
Week 11 NFL teaser picks
6-point teaser
- Lions (-1.5)
- 49ers (-5.5)
Picks made on November 17 at 2:15 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Week 11 Teaser
Lions (-7.5 to -1.5) vs Bears
Detroit has two losses this season — an overtime shootout against the Seahawks and a loss in Baltimore. There’s no real shame in that, especially when it's destroyed a lot of its other opponents this season. The Lions have five wins by 12 or more points in 2023 and have made a habit out of destroying weaker competition.
The Bears will get Justin Fields back, which I don’t think will make a dramatic difference. They're just 1-13 SU in his last 14 starts, which includes a 41-10 loss in Detroit at the end of last season. The Bears have also been a punching bag within the NFC North, going a brutal 3-16 ATS in their last 19 divisional games.
The game sets up nicely for Jared Goff, who’s much better on his homefield, where he has a 106.5 QB rating. The Bears have one of the worst pass rushes in the league and have an NFL-low 13 sacks, while also ranking 26th in opponent completion percentage. Detroit’s defense has also been much better at home where it ranks fourth in yards allowed per play. The Lions are on an 8-1 ATS roll at home, and I fully expect this to continue against the overmatched Bears.
49ers (-11.5 to -5.5) vs Buccaneers
We’ve got mismatches everywhere in this game, and the 49ers should be able to move the ball with ease. This is a matchup between a 49ers offense that’s second in yards per play against a Buccaneers defense that's 26th in yards per play allowed. Tampa Bay’s defense is also awful on third down, where it ranks dead-last in the NFL. San Francisco’s offense in fifth on third down, but first in the category on its home field.
When the 49ers win, they win big, and don’t mind smacking around inferior teams. They already have five wins of 18 or more points this season and are on a run at home that’s seen them go 16-3 ATS in their last 19 games. This tear includes 12 wins of 14 or more points.
The Bucs have had a fairly easy schedule so far this season, but have gotten pulverized vs. high-level competition. Both the Eagles and Lions came into Tampa Bay and won by 14, with Philadelphia outgaining them by almost 300 yards.
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Best Week 11 teaser spots
- Lions (-7.5 to -1.5)
- 49ers (-11.5 to -5.5)
- Cardinals vs. Texans (+5.5 to +11.5)
- Vikings vs. Broncos (+2 to +8)
- Steelers vs Browns (+1.5 to +7.5)
It turns out the Cardinals aren’t the disaster that many (including myself) predicted coming into the season, as they’re respectable in many key areas. I like the spark Kyler Murray gave them in his return to action, leading the offense to 5.9 yards per play and 25 points. That, combined with a running game that ranks a surprising second in yards per rush attempt should be able to keep this game from getting out of hand against a Texans defense that's bad on third down and against the pass.
The Vikings play in a lot of tight games. They still haven’t lost a game by more than seven points all season, while three of the Broncos’ four wins only came by two points. Denver is starting to turn things around with three straight wins, but it's getting a lot of help (see four turnovers and stupid penalties by the Bills). Denver ranks 30th in net yards per play during its three-game win streak, while the Vikings are tied for 10th during that same span. Don’t be surprised if the Vikings pull off an upset win.
Statistically, the Steelers don’t make sense as a 6-3 team, but they play in a lot of tight games, and that’s what I expect against the Browns in a game that has the lowest total of the season at 33 points. Four of Cleveland’s last five games were decided by four points or less and I have serious doubts if they can even score 10 points with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. In his lone start, the Browns scored just three points off 166 total yards. Based on that, the Steelers should be favored in this game.
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