Week 11 of the NFL season went to the favorites who covered nine of the 14 games while winning 10 games outright. Home-field advantage might be coming into play a bit more as well with the home favorite going 6-2 ATS. With the wear and tear of the season catching up to a lot of teams as well as the weather having more of an impact, bettors should absolutely have the homefield factor on their radars down the stretch.
We have quite a bit of contrast on the Week 12 betting board with five spreads of 7.5 or more and four games with spreads inside of three points. Seven of the 13 games feature a home underdog, while six of the games have a total of 43 or less.
If you need a starting point for navigating this week’s games, check out my favorite NFL betting trend for every Week 12 game.
Best of luck with all your picks, unless you’re fading me!
Best NFL Week 12 betting trends
Steelers vs Browns
The trend: Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine divisional matchups
It’s been an unlikely season for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they’ll look to keep rolling on Thursday night in Cleveland as a four-point favorite. It’s been a lost season for the Cleveland Browns who’ve been smoked by 21 and 17 points in their last two games while also going 1-4 ATS on their home field. Pittsburgh is favored by 3.5 points.
See all Steelers vs Browns trends for Week 12.
Cowboys vs Commanders
The trend: The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games
The wheels have fallen off and the car has exploded for the Dallas Cowboys… and they don’t have insurance… and their wife has also left them… and their social media accounts were hacked! You get the point, it’s gotten bad. So bad in fact that Dallas is a double-digit underdog for the first time since 2020 and just the fourth time since 2010. The Washington Commanders will be looking to get back on track as a 10.5-point favorite.
See all Cowboys vs Commanders trends for Week 12.
Buccaneers vs Giants
The trend: The Bucs are 11-3 ATS on the road since the start of last season
They’ve also gone 2-0 ATS in the two games in this span where they were a road favorite and now they get the pleasure of welcoming Tommy DeVito back into action. Tampa is favored by six points in this matchup between teams who are both coming off a bye.
See all Buccaneers vs Giants trends for Week 12.
Chiefs vs Panthers
The trend: The Panthers have lost by an average of 22 points against teams who currently have a winning record
These four games came against the Chargers, Falcons, Commanders, and Broncos. The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off their first loss of the season and it should be noted that they were a strong bet in this spot last season, where they went 4-1-1 ATS. To the surprise of no one, the Chiefs are the biggest favorite of the week at 10.5 points.
See all Chiefs vs Panthers trends for Week 12.
Vikings vs Bears
The trend: The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games
Outside of that pathetic performance against the Patriots two weeks ago, the Chicago Bears have been solid at home. They really should have beaten the Packers last week but will get another shot at a divisional opponent with the Minnesota Vikings in town who are favored by 3.5.
See all Vikings vs Bears trends for Week 12.
Patriots vs Dolphins
The trend: The Dolphins are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games when favored by seven or more points
It’s simple — the Miami Dolphins, with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, beat up on bad teams. We saw this last when they smacked the Las Vegas Raiders by 15, and it’s been on display plenty of other times in the Mike McDaniel era. Also of note, the Dolphins have covered eight straight games against the New England Patriots. Miami is favored by 7.5.
See all Patriots vs Dolphins trends for Week 12.
Titans vs Texans
The trend: The Texans are 10-1 ATS in the first half
Great starts are part of the Houston Texans’ DNA this season as they rank in the top five in both scoring and points allowed in the opening half. Specific to playing at home, they have an impressive +9.4 first-half scoring margin. They’re favored by 5.5 points in the first half of this game.
See all Titans vs Texans trends for Week 12.
Lions vs Colts
The trend: The Lions are 18-7 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season
Are the Detroit Lions capable of a letdown spot? Many would’ve assumed that they’d take their foot off the gas in last week’s game against the Jaguars, but it wasn’t to be — they obliterated them 52-6. That was the second time in a four-game span that they scored 52 points. They’re favored by 7.5 in this matchup, which has the highest total of the week at 50.5.
See all Lions vs Colts trends for Week 12.
Broncos vs Raiders
The trend: The Broncos 1st half O/U record on the road + the Raiders 1st half O/U record at home is 9-1 to the Over
You might have to read that one twice, but this might be a sneaky spot to hammer with the first-half total set at 20.5. It should also be mentioned that the Las Vegas Raiders have covered eight straight home games when hosting the Denver Broncos who are favored by 5.5 points.
See all Broncos vs Raiders trends for Week 12.
49ers vs Packers
The trend: The 49ers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog
Are we overreacting to the San Francisco 49ers letting another one get away in Week 11 against the Seahawks? Probably not, but they are an underdog for the first time all season this Sunday in Green Bay against a Packers team that’s struggling to pull away from inferior opponents in recent weeks. Green Bay is favored by 2.5.
See all 49ers vs Packers trends for Week 12.
Cardinals vs Seahawks
The trend: Geno Smith has thrown nine interceptions in six home games this season
Let’s zero in on a player prop with nothing standing out in team trends. Geno Smith has been an interception machine at home with multiple picks thrown in three games already. Be on the lookout for his 0.5 interceptions prop against this emerging Arizona Cardinals defense.
See all Cardinals vs Seahawks trends for Week 12.
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