NFL Week 13 Bet Now, Bet Later: Fins Go Way Up

Now that we’re on the other side of Thanksgiving, the real NFL season begins.

There’s a mad dash to the finish line for those pushing for the postseason. And for everyone else, motivations range from week to week.

What we do know for sure is that getting the best of the number for your bets is the foundation of profitable handicapping — no matter if you’re wagering on good or bad teams.

I run down the opening NFL Week 13 odds and highlight some spreads and totals to bet now and a couple to leave for later in the week.

Week 13 bet now, bet later picks

• Lions (-3.5) at Saints: Bet Now
• 49ers at Eagles (+1): Bet Later
• Dolphins at Commanders (Over 49.5): Bet Now
• Chiefs at Packers (Under 42): Bet Later

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints: Bet Now

In the wonderful world of NFL odds betting, key numbers control the markets. We all know the cadence — 3, 6, 7, 10 — but one of the more undervalued key numbers is four.

Beyond the usual suspects, the 4-point spread is becoming a very common margin and the value of avoiding a -4.5 is nearly as important as staying below -3.5. And with that, we look to bet the Detroit Lions -3.5 right now.

Detroit travels to the Big Easy to butt heads with the New Orleans Saints, not only getting a mini-bye after a bad loss to Green Bay at home but also running into a NOLA roster rife with injuries. 

The Saints watched WRs Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave leave Sunday’s loss to Atlanta and are also down bodies on defense with DE Cameron Jordan leaving Week 12 and CB Marshon Lattimore hitting IR last week.

Detroit will be waiting 10 days to get the taste of a sour Thanksgiving dinner out of its mouth and faces a shorthanded Saints squad on the fast track inside the Superdome. There are Lions -4 spreads popping up, so get Detroit below the underrated key number.

Best odds to bet Lions -3.5 right now

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (+1): Bet Later

The Philadelphia Eagles look ripe for a letdown spot after a thrilling overtime win against Buffalo in a soggy Week 12 contest that might have been the "Game of the Year." The San Francisco 49ers, on the other hand, were dry and warm at home after crushing Seattle on Thursday night.

This monster NFC encounter opened as short as pick’em and moved to Philadelphia +2 at some sharper books shortly after taking action Sunday night. There are a few books still sticking at Eagles +1 as of this writing.

The Niners are certainly set up better for this game, coming off the mini-bye. Philadelphia’s defense could also be missing some key cogs with DT Fletcher Cox and LB Zach Cunningham leaving Sunday’s thriller in the fourth quarter.

All that said, the Eagles aren’t often home underdogs and have shown they can beat the best of the best after knocking off the Dolphins, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills in four of the last five games.

If you’re feeling Philly, wait and see how high this goes, and make sure your books have come off the PK and past the +1 before getting down.

Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders (Over 49.5): Bet Now

In a season dominated by Unders (cashing in at a 58% clip), we’re seeing fewer and fewer 50-point totals. 

Heading into Week 13, there have been just 10 Over/Under numbers of 50-plus, with those games finishing 2-8 O/U. If early market rumblings are any indication, the total for the Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders should close on the other side of 50 points.

This total opened at 49.5 points on Sunday night and some books are already ticking that up to 50 O/U. The tall total is warranted, with Miami able to pour on the points and Washington giving up big scores. So many big scores, in fact, the new ownership group in D.C. showed DC Jack Del Rio the door.

As for the Commanders offense, it can air it out with Sam Howell entering Week 12 as the NFL’s passing leader. Washington has played Over the number in three straight and four of its last five games.

The extended forecast says rain and wind in Hyattsville, but that’s pretty much the extended forecast for every East Coast city for the next week. If you’re skeptical of betting the game total Over now, you can take Miami Over its team total of 29.5, instead.

Best odds to bet Over 49.5 right now

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (Under 42): Bet Later

The Green Bay Packers have picked up the pace on offense, finally. 

The Cheeseheads rolled over Detroit with 29 points on Thanksgiving and posted 23 points against the Chargers in Week 11. It might not seem like much of a surge, but when you consider how crap the Green Bay offense was before that, you’ll understand.

Taking the shine off those results is the fact that the Packers pushed around defenses ranked in the bottom third of EPA allowed per dropback. The Kansas City Chiefs, on the other hand, rank fourth in that advanced metric.

Yes, the Chiefs can light up a scoreboard, but this year’s team is anchored in defense. Kansas City has allowed 20 points or less in eight of its 11 games, sticking below the total eight of those outings.

The Chiefs allowed two quick touchdowns to the Raiders in Week 12 before slamming the door for only three more points in the final 43 minutes. That 31-17 final score did go Over the total and is helping bump this Week 12 number from 42 to 43 points at some books.

Again, extended forecasts should be monitored at this point, but models call for a mix of snow and rain with gusts of 25-plus mph for Lambeau Field, making it feel like 17 degrees Sunday night.

Wait and see if this flirts with 43.5 or 44 points later in the week and race the books to the Under when the forecast becomes clearer.

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