The Covers consensus indicates that 61% of our users are backing the Over in Sunday's marquee matchup between the Eagles and Ravens. However, my NFL picks are taking the Under with what I think is an inflated total.
See why I'm also betting on the Over in games between the Chargers and Falcons, and Bucs and Panthers, with my favorite Week 13 NFL picks.
Week 13 totals bets
- Chargers vs Falcons Over 47.5 (-110 at bet365)
- Buccaneers vs Panthers Over 46.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
- Eagles vs Ravens Under 51 (-110 at SportsInteraction)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 13 Over/Under picks
Over/Under bet #1: Chargers vs Falcons Over 47.5
I wasn't sold on a highly-ranked Los Angeles Chargers defense that had played a slew of pitiful offenses to begin the year. They proved me right when they faced competent offenses the last two weeks and gave up 452 yards to the Bengals before surrendering 212 rushing yards and 30 points versus the Ravens.
The Atlanta Falcons are fresh off a bye after getting crushed 38-6 in Denver in Week 11. However, they had averaged 390.7 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play in their previous three contests and should bounce back at home here. Kirk Cousins & Co. will benefit from facing a banged-up Bolts stop unit that could be missing as many as five starters at linebacker and in the secondary.
The Chargers will also be without starting running back J.K. Dobbins, but that only makes it more likely that they'll air the ball out with Justin Herbert and a passing game that has opened up since Week 7. The Falcons are 26th in the league in defensive dropback EPA and 30th in pressure rate so Herbert will have plenty of time to find open receivers.
Over/Under bet #2: Buccaneers vs Panthers Over 46.5
I won't go so far as to describe the Carolina Panthers offense as half-decent, but they have dropped 20+ points in three straight games, which is far better than how they played earlier this season. Bryce Young is coming off his best performance of the year, throwing for 263 yards against a good Chiefs defense, and Chuba Hubbard has helped them rank ninth in the league in rush EPA.
Although the Panthers' offense is trending in the right direction, their defense still ranks second-last in the league in EPA and dead-last in success rate. Somewhat surprisingly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven't been much better, ranking 28th in defensive EPA and 31st in defensive success rate.
The Bucs have been far more impressive on the other side of the ball where Baker Mayfield has looked like a Pro Bowler. Tampa Bay is fifth in the league in EPA/play and fourth in success rate and has shown more balance in recent weeks, with rookie RB Bucky Irving emerging as a threat out of the backfield.
Over/Under bet #3: Eagles vs Ravens Under 51
Both of these offenses are electric, but this lofty total doesn't give enough credit to how dominant the Philadelphia Eagles defense has been since their bye in Week 5. Since the start of October, Philly is first in the league in defensive EPA while ranking second against both the run and pass.
While the Eagles offense is explosive, the Baltimore Ravens stop unit matches up well against them. This is an attack that runs the ball at the highest rate in the league and has been heavily reliant on superstar RB Saquon Barkley to get things going.
However, the Ravens are second in the NFL in defensive rush EPA and allow a league-low 3.5 yards per rush attempt. The Ravens held the Chargers to 83 yards on 20 carries last week despite missing Roquan Smith, and with the Pro Bowl linebacker set to return this week, they'll be even tougher up the middle.
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