You can count the remaining weeks of the NFL season on one hand as Week 14 odds hit the board.
With December here, there are so many extra influences to consider in the home stretch of the schedule: playoff races, potential tanking, coaching carousels, as well as the winter weather. And that’s on top of the usual situational spots facing teams each week.
I comb through the Week 14 slate and highlight the possible spot bet opportunities — letdown, look-ahead, and schedule — and how you should fold those into your NFL picks.
Letdown Spot: Los Angeles Rams (+7) at Baltimore Ravens
A three-game winning streak suddenly has the Los Angeles Rams in contention for a postseason spot, coming off a one-sided 36-19 victory over Cleveland at home in Week 13.
At 6-6, the Rams are just one win away from topping their modest season win total of 6.5 victories — a surprise to many who pegged L.A. as one of the worst teams in the NFL heading into 2023.
Los Angeles’ success gets tested in a lofty letdown spot in Week 14, traveling to the East Coast for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. Waiting for the Rams are the well-rested Baltimore Ravens, who enjoyed a bye this past week.
Not only does L.A. face its most fearsome foe since getting dumped 43-20 at Dallas in Week 8, but Los Angeles also encounters some classic East Coast winter weather. The extended forecast for the DMV calls for rain and winds close to 30 mph on Sunday afternoon.
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Schedule Spot: Detroit Lions (-4) at Chicago Bears
This space is usually reserved for the “look-ahead” spot of the week, but Week 14 doesn’t have one worth mentioning. It does, however, have a couple of tricky schedule spots.
The Detroit Lions travel to the Windy City for a second straight road game but what’s more important is where this NFC North rivalry is being held.
This battle with the Chicago Bears will be Detroit’s first outdoor game since Week 7. It has played its last five games either at home or inside a domed stadium, and those clean and fast tracks have helped juice this Lions attack.
Detroit is averaging just short of 31 points per contest in that span, ranking No. 7 in EPA per play since Week 8. Opponents have also benefited during this stretch, with Detroit’s defense leaking 27 points per outing. It’s all panned out to a 3-2 ATS mark and a 4-1 Over/Under count.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff does see a downtick in outdoor venues. His passer rating slips to 90.1 (vs. 98.0 indoors) and his completion rate drops from 67.5% in controlled climates to 62.5% outside. He’s also thrown an interception in 77% of open-air games compared to a 59.6% INT clip indoors.
The extended forecast for Chicago calls for potential snow showers throughout this 1 p.m. ET kickoff with wind gusts flirting with 30 mph, which will make the temperature in Solider Field feel like 28 degrees.
This Week 14 total opened at 45.5 and has slimmed to 44.5 points as of Monday morning. The Lions have gone 2-2 O/U in outdoor games this season, averaging just over 22 points in those showings.
Schedule Spot: Carolina Panthers (+5.5) at New Orleans Saints
The Carolina Panthers can’t catch a break.
After a dreadful 1-11 campaign and the exile of their head coach, Carolina now faces the final stop of a nasty stretch of schedule. Week 14’s trip to the Big Easy serves as the third straight road game for the Panthers and their fourth road game in the last five contests.
Carolina has shown some fight during this span, including covering as a 3.5-point road underdog in Week 13’s 21-18 loss at Tampa Bay. It marked just the second time the Panthers have covered a spread all season (2-8-2 ATS). Carolina is in a weird spot in Week 14 as well as for the remainder of the season.
The Panthers are now officially eliminated from the postseason, but this won’t be a tanking team. Its 2024 draft pick belongs to the Bears and the remaining coaching staff are either eyeing that vacant HC role or looking to boost their resumes for a new job next year.
This tough road spot and conflicting motivations have the market on the Panthers all over the NFL odds board in Week 14, with Carolina sitting between +5.5 and +6.5.
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