Everyone has their own betting strategy, but no matter the system, trend, or gameday animal sacrifice you follow, there’s no replacement for getting the best of the number to back up your bet.
This is especially true at this point in the season. Oddsmakers’ power ratings are humming with more than three months of data, so snatching a couple of extra points here and there can make the difference between a winning Sunday and eating Mr. Noodle for Monday’s lunch.
I run down the opening NFL odds for Week 14 and pinpoint which spreads and totals to bet now, and which ones you may want to wait on — depending on your early leans for Week 14.
Week 14 bet now, bet later picks
- Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at New York Giants: Bet Now
- Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5): Bet Later
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Over 52): Bet Now
- New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (Under 45): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at New York Giants: Bet Now
The Eagles absolutely dismantled one of the top teams in the AFC on Sunday, stomping the Titans 35-10 in an exhibition of two-way football. Philly cruised for 6.8 yards per play on offense while locking down Tennessee to just 3.9 yards a snap.
Philadelphia makes the short bus ride to East Rutherford in Week 14, opening as 6.5-point road chalk versus the Giants. New York is coming off a tie game with Washington on the weekend, failing to score more than 20 points for the third straight game.
The Eagles ground-and-pound on the road and rely on their defense to get the job done, shutting down host teams to an average of 18.6 points. Philadelphia’s pass rush — which just collected six sacks against the Titans — faces a banged-up Giants offensive line that has allowed QB Daniel Jones to feel pressure at the second-highest rate in the league.
This may be a divisional game with the potential for a letdown looming, but the gap between the Eagles and Giants is more than a touchdown. Bet Philly -6.5 now.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5): Bet Later
The Seahawks snapped a two-game funk with a tighter-than-expected win over the Rams in Week 13, coming away with the victory but falling short as touchdown chalk. Seattle returns home, opening as a 6.5-point favorite hosting the 4-8 Panthers in Week 14.
Carolina may not be the sexiest club out there, but it is covering spreads and has been a darling of sharp bettors all season long — even before the Panthers’ QB mess and coaching upheaval. The Panthers are 3-3 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in their last six games and are coming off a bye in Week 13, giving the team a much-needed breather and extended prep to get current QB Sam Darnold folded into the offense.
I do expect pro bettors to pile on the Panthers again, and we’re seeing signs of that early opinion with the market consensus down to Seahawks -6 on Sunday night. Seattle had an injury to rookie RB Kenneth Walker in Sunday’s win and his status for Week 14 will have an impact on these odds.
That said, if you can’t bring yourself to buy into Carolina (the Panthers are still a bit of a mess) and you’re siding with Seattle (which has a shot at winning the NFC West with the 49ers down to a QB3), then wait this one out. You may get Seahawks below the key number of -6 later in the week.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Over 52): Bet Now
Lions games are pretty much a blind bet on the Over at this point. Detroit is 4-2 O/U in its last sixth outings and this offense is no joke, ranked out Top 5 in EPA per play since Week 10. The Lions are coming off a 40-point explosion in Sunday’s home win over Jacksonville and stay home for a third straight game inside Ford Field, hosting Minnesota in Week 14.
The Vikings have put up 33 and 27 points against two very tough AFC East defenses and now face a Detroit stop unit that sits among the bottom in most advanced metrics. As for the Vikes defense, it was outgained 486 to 287 vs. the Jets in Week 13 and is Bottom 10 in EPA allowed per play since Week 10.
These NFC North foes clashed in Minnesota back in Week 2, with the Vikings winning 28-24 — just clearing the 51.5-point total. This time around, the bookies have opened this total at that number and early money is running it up as high as 53.5 at some books on Sunday night. As of this writing, you can still get a total of 52, so bet the Over now.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (Under 45): Bet Later
The Bills have a lot of pride, which is why they’ve been counting down the minutes until this rematch with the Jets ever since Gang Green stunned Buffalo 20-17 back in Week 9.
Buffalo has enjoyed a mini-bye to prep and watch New York this weekend, thanks to playing New England on Thursday. The Bills owned the Patriots with a shutdown defense that gave up only 242 yards and checked New England to 3-for-12 success on third downs while eating up 38:08 of possession.
The Jets offense has produced since making the move to Mike White under center, with 31 points and 466 yards in the win over Chicago and 22 points on 486 yards in the loss to Minnesota this weekend. However, those two defenses pale in comparison to Buffalo's.
The total for this AFC East grudge match opened as low as 44.5 points on Sunday night and has taken early play on the Over, jumping up to 45 points. The extended forecast is calling for snow in Orchard Park this weekend and Sunday could also see winds up to 31 mph.
If you’re thinking Under, wait on this number to climb and make sure you’re at least getting 45 points before banking on a low-scoring finish in Week 14.
