Week 14 NFL Parlay Picks: Colts Can Rely on Moss vs Bengals

It's not uncommon to see big point spreads in the NFL odds when the calendar flips to December, as bettors are exposed to a larger sample size and injuries take their toll. But while there are three teams favored by more than a touchdown in Week 14, there are nine laying 3.5 points or fewer. 

All four of the games I'm featuring in my free NFL parlay picks column this week fall into the latter category. Join me as I analyze the Week 14 odds and give out my best traditional 3-leg parlay, as well as a same-game parlay for Colts vs. Bengals.

Week 14 NFL parlay picks

• Falcons ML + Texans ML + Raiders +3 = +435
• Colts ML + Z. Moss anytime TD + M. Pittman Jr. o74.5 rec yds = +510

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Week 14 parlay pick

Falcons moneyline

Texans moneyline

Raiders +3

+435 at Caesars

Caesars has the best odds on this 3-leg parlay as of Thursday afternoon, with FanDuel checking in with the next-best price at +420. It begins by not fooling around with the 1.5-point spread in the Buccaneers vs. Falcons game and simply taking Atlanta to get the job done at home and protect its NFC South lead.

The Bucs are 2-6 over their last eight games, with only modest home wins vs. the Titans and Panthers. They've dropped each of their last four on the road and took a 16-13 loss at Raymond James Stadium to the Falcons back in Week 7. That defeat looks even worse when you remember that was the game where Bijan Robinson took just one carry due to an illness. 

Tampa's rush defense has been gouged for 115 yards or more in three straight games, so the Bucs should expect a heavy dose of Atlanta's rookie running back on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Texans' offense is humming along, scoring 21 or more points in five straight games en route to a 4-1 record. The same cannot be said for the Jets, who have topped out at 13 points while averaging 8.6 in the same span. However, their stingy defense tends to drag opponents down with them, and the forecast for Sunday is less than pleasant, so the hook on the Houston spread scares me just a bit.

Still, I do not expect C.J. Stroud & Co. to lose outright to the likes of Zach Wilson, who owns a completion rate of 57.5% over his last five games, with barely over six yards per completion and 24 sacks taken.

The Joshua Dobbs experiment rolls on in Minnesota, even after he committed six turnovers across the Vikings' last two losses. That gamble by head coach Kevin O'Connell could prove to be costly in Las Vegas.

The Raiders are allowing only 213.5 passing yards per game at home in 2023, where they've gone 4-2. Dobbs' completion rate falls from 68.2% at home to 64.5% on the road, and his yards per pass drops from 6.9 to 6.1.

Josh Jacobs should lead the way on the other side of the ball, as he's picked up at least 98 yards in three of his last four games.

Best Week 14 SGP

Colts moneyline

Zack Moss anytime TD

Michael Pittman Jr. Over 74.5 receiving yards

+510 at Caesars

Amazingly, Caesars is offering this same-game parlay at a full point higher than DraftKings (+400), and they're tied with BetMGM, which is offering Michael Pittman Jr. 70+ receiving yards rather than Over 74.5. FanDuel comes in even lower at +372, so the importance of shopping around is obvious.

I don't believe 27-year-old Bengals rookie Jake Browning will duplicate his Week 13 performance, in which he went 32-for-37 with 354 passing yards. I also believe that Joe Mixon is not the kind of back that can take over games, as he's peaked at 87 rushing yards in 2023 and gone over 70 yards just twice, so Cincy is unlikely to truly exploit the Colts' 26th-ranked rushing defense.

Therefore, I don't see the Bengals outscoring this underrated Colts offense. It's also important to note that Indy has tallied 27 or more points in five of its last six overall.

Although Zack Moss has just one touchdown in that five-game span, I expect the Colts to attack Cincinnati's sixth-worst rushing defense (second-worst by yards per rush) as much as possible. With Jonathan Taylor still out, Moss will get the lion's share of those carries, especially around the goal line. 

Pittman has quickly become Gardner Minshew's favorite target, amassing 12 or more looks in four of his last five games. He's also gone Over this receiving number in five of his last seven contests, and the Bengals have allowed nine receivers to reach this threshold since Week 8.

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