If you were riding with the favorites last week, it was probably a profitable one for you. Favorites went 10-5-1 ATS overall and have increased their slight edge over underdogs for the season, as they’re now covering at a 52.5% clip.
There’s a lot of contrast on the board in Week 16 as we have two games with spreads of 14 points, three games with spreads inside of three, and four games in the four to seven-point range.
If you’re looking for a head start with your NFL picks, I’ve got you covered. Here are my favorite NFL betting trends for each game of the week.
Best of luck out there!
Best NFL Week 16 betting trends
Broncos vs Chargers
The trend: The Chargers have gone Under in 15 of their last 19 divisional home games, and the Broncos have gone Under in 16 of their last 21 divisional road games
A little more divisional math has seen 10 of the last 11 games between these teams go Under when the Chargers play host. Los Angeles has also gone Under in 11 of its last 16 games regardless of the location or opponent. If you like the avalanche of trends to carry over into this one, you can back the Under at 42.
See all Broncos vs Chargers trends for Week 16.
Texans vs Chiefs
The trend: The Texans are an NFL-best 12-2 ATS in the first half this season
It looks like he’s set to play, but you’ll want to wait on the official status of Patrick Mahomes before betting on this game. The Texans are the only team in the NFL that ranks in the top six in both first-half points, for and against. Houston is currently listed at +1.5 on the first-half line.
See all Texans vs Chiefs trends for Week 16.
Steelers vs Ravens
The trend: These teams have gone Under in eight straight games against each other
This is probably the least shocking trend of the week. The Steelers and Ravens had a total of 48.5 against each other back in Week 11 and combined to score just 34 points. This game’s total is at 45, which has stayed Under in the last eight head-to-head matchups.
See all Steelers vs Ravens trends for Week 16.
Giants vs Falcons
The trend: The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games
It’s hard to back the Falcons these days, especially as a big favorite, but the motivation of these two teams couldn’t be further apart. If you think the train wreck continues for the Giants, you can back Atlanta at -8.5.
See all Giants vs Falcons trends for Week 16.
Patriots vs Bills
The trend: Over their last nine games, these teams are a combined 14-4 to the Over
The Bills are an absolute buzzsaw right now, having 30 or more points in eight straight games. Their last two games also saw combined scores of 86 and 90 points after their defense got lit up by both the Rams and Lions. Meanwhile, the Patriots get lit up whenever they play a team with a semi-competent offense. This game has a total of 46.5.
See all Patriots vs Bills trends for Week 16.
Lions vs Bears
The trend: The Lions are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after a loss
This trend includes six separate double-digit wins for the Lions, and it should also be mentioned that they’re 5-1 ATS on the road this season and are an insane 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games. They’re favored by 6.5 against a Bears side that has dropped eight in a row.
See all Lions vs Bears trends for Week 16.
Browns vs Bengals
The trend: Cincinnati’s last five home games have had an average combined score of 70.2 points.
All five of these games obviously went Over, as have seven of the last eight head-to-head matchups played in Cincinnati. This Bengals offense is red-hot going back to the start of November, but their defense has surrendered 34+ points on six different occasions. This game has a total of 47.
See all Browns vs Bengals trends for Week 16.
Titans vs Colts
The trend: The Titans are 2-12 ATS this season
Simply pathetic. As I’ve pointed out before, spread betting usually isn’t as simple as betting against bad teams, but here we are. The Colts are coming off an embarrassing loss but have been 4-1 ATS as a home favorite dating back to last season. Indy is favored by four in this one.
See all Titans vs Colts trends for Week 16.
Rams vs Jets
The trend: The Rams are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games played in December
Sean McVay is a closer. Let’s keep running with this after it’s hit in all three games this month. The Rams are favored by three against a Jets team that’s gone 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season.
See all Rams vs Jets trends for Week 16.
Eagles vs Commanders
The trend: The Eagles are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five road games
A 5-0 streak isn’t incredibly impressive but dig a bit deeper and you’ll see how incredibly dominant the Eagles have been down the stretch. Four of those wins came by at least 17 points, and the only exception was a five-point victory as an underdog in Baltimore. Philly is favored by 3.5 against a Commanders squad that’s starting to look a bit fraudulent.
See all Eagles vs Commanders trends for Week 16.
Cardinals vs Panthers
The trend: The Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite
The last time the Cardinals were favored on the road was as a one-point favorite in Seattle six weeks ago, and they went on to score just six points. Before losing to Dallas last week, the Panthers had covered in five straight games. Arizona is favored by four.
See all Cardinals vs Panthers trends for Week 16.
Vikings vs Seahawks
The trend: The first-half total in Seahawks’ home games is 7-1 to the Under
This could be a great pairing as the Vikings rank third in the NFL in first-half points allowed on the road (7.3). If you think this trend continues into this matchup, you can bet the first half Under at 21.5.
See all Vikings vs Seahawks trends for Week 16.
Jaguars vs Raiders
The trend: The Jaguars are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog
May god have mercy on the souls of those who will watch every snap of this game. The Raiders enter losers of 10 straight, and while the Jaguars haven’t been much better, at least they’re showing some fight and keeping their games competitive. Las Vegas is favored by 1.5 in what may be the worst game of the season.
See all Jaguars vs Raiders trends for Week 16.
49ers vs Dolphins
The trend: The Dolphins have gone Over in five straight home games
In the four home games since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, the Dolphins have dropped an average of 31.75 points. This could line up well with a 49ers defense that’s been destroyed in its last two road games, allowing a total of 73 points against the Bills and Packers. This game has a total of 44.5.
See all 49ers vs Dolphins trends for Week 16.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys
The trend: The Bucs average the most points per game on the road, while the Cowboys allow the most points per game on the road
Looks like a great spot to pound the Over on the Buccaneers team total of 26.5. They’re averaging 31.6 points per game on the road, while Dallas is allowing an average of 33.4 points on their home field. Seven of the Cowboys’ last eight opponents in Dallas have topped 26.5 points.
See all Buccaneers vs Cowboys trends for Week 16.
Saints vs Packers
The trend: The Packers have covered in four straight games as a double-digit favorite
You’d have to go back to 2022 for the last time they were in this spot, but Matt LaFleur hasn’t made a habit of playing down to inferior competition. This game has all the makings of a blowout, with a dome team lacking motivation heading to Lambeau Field in late December. The Packers are currently -14 chalk.
See all Saints vs Packers trends for Week 16.
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