NFL Week 16 Odds: Best Spot Bets Include Bucs in Precarious Position

Finding an edge in the NFL odds at this point in the season is like finding your wife the perfect Christmas gift: it’s not going to fall in your lap. And it’s not a foot bath thing, either.

Lines are tight as a (little drummer boy's) drum at this time of the year, which means you need to mix in some situational handicapping — AKA spot bets — into your research routine. I do the heavy lifting with the NFL Week 16 odds, picking out my favorite letdown, look-ahead, and schedule spots for this week’s slate.

Letdown spot: Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1, 41.5)

When you’ve lost so many games in the crushing way the Raiders have lost so many games, winning one by miraculous circumstances is a nice change of pace. And giving head coach Josh McDaniels a one-up on his old mentor Bill Belichick has Las Vegas riding high off a crazy finish to its home win over New England.

There’s a contrast in climate when the Silver and Black take those happy vibes to the cold heart of Steel Town USA in Week 16. Las Vegas is a 1-point underdog visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers, ripe for a letdown in one of the NFL's toughest venues.

Pittsburgh is playing solid football with three wins in its last four, including a grinder of a game vs. Carolina on Sunday. The Steelers defense has been stingy since Week 12, ranked out 12th in EPA allowed per play and collecting 10 QB sacks while upping the pass rush pressure in the last four games.

The Steelers could have rookie QB Kenny Pickett back under center for Saturday and will definitely have the home-field edge, hosting Vegas in what is forecasted to be sub-zero temperatures (feels like -12 degrees. Gawd damn!) with snow showers on Saturday night. 

Look-ahead spot: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (+4, 41)

As long as Tampa Bay holds the edge in the NFC South, everything is cool. You just know Tom Brady & Co. are going to scare the living shit out of someone in the Wild Card Round. 

That said, the biggest hurdle between the Bucs and the tournament are the Carolina Panthers, who sit just behind Tampa in the standings heading into Week 16. In fact, these division foes face off on New Year’s Day in Week 17, but not before the Buccaneers cross the country to play the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals are officially out of the postseason race and playing out a lost season without star quarterback Kyler Murray. Arizona opened as low as +3.5 but has jumped as high as +5 at some sportsbooks on Sunday night. This spread will likely keep rising and if Tom Brady and crew starting counting down to Carolina, Bucs bettors could pay the price.

Schedule spot: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 51)

The Eagles just so happen to have one of the worst schedule spots of the season rearing its ugly head in their biggest game of the year. 

Philadelphia will not only be playing its third straight road game by visiting Dallas in Week 16 but will be doing so on the short week with this NFC East rivalry match set for Saturday. And to make that even more complicated, this game is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on Christmas Eve, which means plenty of off-field issues to organize for players and staff before leaving for Dallas ahead of the holiday.

The Eagles are coming off a tighter-than-expected 25-20 win at Chicago on Sunday and have won five in a row heading into this marquee matchup. This is the first time Philadelphia has been an underdog all season, with the spread hitting the board at Dallas -1 and jumping as high as -2.

Philly was able to hold off Dallas 26-17 at home back in Week 6 but that was with backup Cooper Rush under center for the Cowboys instead of Dak Prescott. Could this snarling schedule spot be the difference in what bookies are projecting as one of the tightest games of Week 16?

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