Shopping is front of mind in NFL Week 16.
Not only is the countdown to Christmas on its final ticks but the NFL odds for a busy week of betting on football are fresh out of the oddsmakers’ oven like a batch of gingerbread men.
Getting the best of the bookies this holiday week means getting the best number for your opinion. That has us shopping the opening Week 16 odds for value now and waiting a little later in the week for some last-minute discounts.
Here are my “Bet Now, Bet Later” lines for Week 16.
Week 16 bet now, bet later picks
- Bills (-13.5) at Chargers: Bet Now
- Colts at Falcons (+2): Bet Later
- Browns at Texans (Over 41.5): Bet Now
- Cardinals at Bears (Under 44.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Buffalo Bills (-13.5) at Los Angeles Chargers: Bet Now
This Saturday showdown in SoFi Stadium has two teams on the NFL seesaw, with the Los Angeles Chargers dropping like a stone and the Buffalo Bills on the way up.
Buffalo is back in the playoff conversation after shit-stomping the Dallas Cowboys in Orchard Park in Week 15, improving the Bills to 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games.
Los Angeles is still stinging from a 63-21 embarrassment in Las Vegas last Thursday, which served as the straw that broke the camel's back for the Bolts’ front office. Head coach Brandon Staley was fired, leaving Giff Smith as the interim. Oh, and Justin Herbert is done for the year.
The look-ahead line for this AFC affair was Bills -10 but with Buffalo back in the postseason hunt and the public pumping up this opener, we’re seeing openers of -12 or -13 sprint toward two touchdowns.
If you’re circling the wagons on Xmas Eve Eve (or Tibb’s Eve if you’re cool), bet the Bills under two touchdowns now.
Best odds to bet Bills -13.5 right now
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (+2): Bet Later
The Atlanta Falcons dropped a must-win matchup at Carolina in Week 15, putting them behind the eight ball in the race for the NFC South. The team already has an uphill climb with three of the final four games coming away from home.
The lone homestand in the final stretch is on Xmas Eve, welcoming the Indianapolis Colts to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The look-ahead lines initially had the Falcons as slim home favorites, but the official Week 16 opener has Atlanta getting +2 from bookmakers.
If you’re not jumping on the “fire Arthur Smith” train after Sunday’s soggy showing, wait on this spread and see how big it gets before buying back the home side. There are plenty of positives for the Colts that could push this to a field-goal spread.
Indy enjoys a rest edge after beating Pittsburgh 30-13 on Saturday and that win has the Colts in the postseason hunt, going 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six outings. In my eyes, this is Atlanta +3 or nothing at all, so don’t be afraid to walk away if this spread doesn’t hit the key number between now and Dec. 24.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (Over 41.5): Bet Now
The Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans opened with a short total of 41.5 points and that has already jumped to as high as 42.5 at some shops on Sunday night.
At first glance, the initial opinion may be puzzling. Cleveland scored a 20-17 win over Chicago that stayed below the closing total of 38 O/U while Houston edged Tennessee 19-16 in overtime, finishing below the total of 38.5 points.
What lies beneath is that the Browns and Texans posted 340-plus yards in their respective Week 15 wins, but left points on the table due to a combined 2-for-6 count in the red zone and drive-killing turnovers.
There’s a real possibility for points in this suddenly important AFC encounter, as both teams are pushing for the playoffs.
First off, this contest is indoors on the fast track in NRG Stadium. Second, the Browns defense doesn’t travel, allowing a league-high 30.7 points per road game. And third, Houston could have weapons QB C.J. Stroud and WR Nico Collins back from injury.
Beat the injury reports and subsequent adjustments and bet the Over now.
Best odds to bet Over 41.5 right now
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (Under 44.5): Bet Later
The Arizona Cardinals’ clash with the San Francisco 49ers saw a collective 74 points scored, which put the closing 48.5-point total to shame. Now, Arizona brings that 31st-ranked defense to the Windy City in Week 16.
The Chicago Bears managed only 17 points in a loss at Cleveland, battling a Browns stop unit that plays its best ball at home. Chicago has been able to take advantage of dreadful defenses and averages 22.5 points per game in Solider Field.
But let’s not discount the Bears defense. Chicago has held four of its last five foes to 20 points or less and this group ranks No. 2 in EPA allowed per play since Week 6. Arizona averages more than 10 points less in the role of visitor and is 1-6 Over/Under on the road in 2023.
This total opened at 44 points and is starting to jump higher, moving to 44.5 points off the key Over/Under number. Hold up and make sure your sportsbook is at least at 44.5 or get greedy and wait for 45 before coming back on the Under.
FYI: Some extended forecasts call for rain for this 4:25 p.m. ET start on Xmas Eve, with “feels like” temperatures a very non-Arizona low 40s.
Not intended for use in MA.
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